That absolutely was a typo my bad, should be "too cold".You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”
1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?
Very true, April 21st just last year.It is still early enough for the bulk of the SE and especially up your way and further north, to have a few more gorgeously dry, pleasant weekends even assuming a warm spring (not cold like this one but still pleasantly cool to mild with low RH). Typically there is at least one chilly period in April. I know that many Masters golf tourneys have very nice days and chilly nights. Canadian highs don't typically just go cold turkey on dropping well down into the US until at least well into spring.
I think the low nighttime temps will gradually rise as we get close to Sat
I bet you don’t drop below 30 . Atlanta won’t drop below 25. Same for RDU. That’s my wager !Often I would agree with this due to the continued cold bias of model consensus. However, as you know, cold biased doesn’t mean too cold all of the time but rather too cold on average. I’ve been following the modeled 3/13 lows for quite a few days now and they really haven’t been warming and we’re getting close to the event. It has been more like one run warmer followed by the next run colder, etc. Back and forth. More typically, we would have seen some model warming by now. Also, this is a true Arctic airmass with very cold 850s for mid-March. So, I think the cold modeled lows will hold (no, not the CMC’s ridiculous cold lol). The GFS is my model of choice and it has been fairly consistent for days.
So, Im going with FFC’s low 20s at Atlanta and think even KATL will end up 23 or lower. Done ATL N burbs could see high teens. I like upper 20s down my way and 30 or lower for @pcbjr ‘s abode on the northside of Hogtown.
GEFS cause why not View attachment 115316