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Pattern March Thread

Lickwx said:
I’d wager it gets no where near that cold . Adjective driven cold tends to be portrayed colder than reality . It’s radiational cooling they miss . I’d be surprised if RDU even dropped below 25.
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The wager I had against you for Feb 1-14 was a fail but I’ll try again this time at least for KATL. With 850s Saturday evening projected to plummet to near -11 to -12 at ATL/-13 to -14 at RDU (both extremely rare that late in the season) and a rare sub 970 mb storm forecasted for New England allowing for highly unusual very strong CAA, this is such an anomalous setup. Also, at KATL, it is the opposite in that it only does well with advective cold. It is about the worst major station during radiation cooling situations.
 
GaWx said:
The wager I had against you for Feb 1-14 was a fail but I’ll try again this time at least for KATL. With 850s Saturday evening projected to plummet to near -11 to -12 at ATL/-13 to -14 at RDU (both extremely rare that late in the season) and a rare sub 970 mb storm forecasted for New England allowing for highly unusual very strong CAA, this is such an anomalous setup. Also, at KATL, it is the opposite in that it only does well with advective cold. It is about the worst major station during radiation cooling situations.
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That’s true that with a UHI station it will only match surroundings with good advection . I’m just wagering it doesn’t get that cold period , but it could . I’d lean against it .
 
Lickwx said:
I’d wager it gets no where near that cold . Adjective driven cold tends to be portrayed colder than reality . It’s radiational cooling they miss . I’d be surprised if RDU even dropped below 25.
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Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
 
ILMRoss said:
Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
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Lol thanks for quoting me . I saw I wrote “ adjective “ driven cold . Hah!
 
This has nothing to do with March but I wanted to put it in here so more people can see it. It’s a weather site I stumbled across a few days ago and it’s pretty cool. It has past weather temps, rain and snow from many years back for a lot of locations. For Nashville it goes all the way back to 1948. It’s called extreme weather watch.

Extreme Weather Watch

www.extremeweatherwatch.com www.extremeweatherwatch.com
 
ILMRoss said:
Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
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You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”

1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?

2. The 12Z GFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z in many locations with not as cold 850s and at 2m. At ATL, it has the coldest 850 at -9 C instead of the -12 C of the 6Z/18Z run and -10 C of the 0Z run. It has middle 20s (similar to the 0Z run) instead of the low 20s of the 6Z/18Z for the 3/13 low.

At SAV it has 30-31 instead of the upper 20s of the prior 3 runs and it has above 32 at JAX/GNV instead of the freezes of the 6Z/18Z and the near 32 of the 0Z.

79C90181-48F0-4BAF-B404-BDC853392F47.png
 
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CTG lightning just hit nearby in a developing storm. First time in a long time here.
 
GaWx said:
You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”

1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?

2. The 12Z GFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z in many locations with not as cold 850s and at 2m. At ATL, it has the coldest 850 at -9 C instead of the -12 C of the 6Z/18Z run and -10 C of the 0Z run. It has middle 20s (similar to the 0Z run) instead of the low 20s of the 6Z/18Z for the 3/13 low.

At SAV it has 30-31 instead of the upper 20s of the prior 3 runs and it has above 32 at JAX/GNV instead of the freezes of the 6Z/18Z and the near 32 of the 0Z.

View attachment 115129
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The 18Z GFS has come back slightly colder than the 12Z for lows on 3/13 at ATL and to its SE

gfsop_18_t2ms_gc_h_0090.png

This is in association with colder 850s vs the 12Z:gfsop_18_p850ts_gc_h_0078.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Correction: This weekend looks Gorgeous; the last weekend before the horrific summer of 7 looong months begins. I'll be ignoring those ugly Fro maps till October!
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It is still early enough for the bulk of the SE and especially up your way and further north, to have a few more gorgeously dry, pleasant weekends even assuming a warm spring (not cold like this one but still pleasantly cool to mild with low RH). Typically there is at least one chilly period in April. I know that many Masters golf tourneys have very nice days and chilly nights. Canadian highs don't typically just go cold turkey on dropping well down into the US until at least well into spring.
 
Might not look like much dampened out, but This pattern with a GOA/AK low favors energy handoffs from it —> cutoffs as the pacific energy moving east separates from the faster flow on top with ridging building over and then cutoff propagation east, and the GOAK low speeds up the flow favoring faster movement with these cutoffs. Volatile pattern for severe weather and cutoffs in general, mild pattern as well Gonna be lots of 70s probably EF0A12BE-8C2C-41A2-8F07-F0ED00DB00CD.png
 
GaWx said:
You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”

1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?
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That absolutely was a typo my bad, should be "too cold".
 
The 12Z GFS is one of the coldest runs so far for Sunday morning lows for the deep SE: I can’t figure out why there is a bubble of slightly warmer to my west…that looks bogus as all areas are clear and that area is typically as cold or colder than my location but many GFS runs have shown this:

244BAEB6-8757-41F3-A22C-6A8E8CFFB62F.png
 
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GaWx said:
It is still early enough for the bulk of the SE and especially up your way and further north, to have a few more gorgeously dry, pleasant weekends even assuming a warm spring (not cold like this one but still pleasantly cool to mild with low RH). Typically there is at least one chilly period in April. I know that many Masters golf tourneys have very nice days and chilly nights. Canadian highs don't typically just go cold turkey on dropping well down into the US until at least well into spring.
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Very true, April 21st just last year.
41FC5BB2-C725-4B2A-A21B-BDE6AE86C40D.jpeg
 
Verbatim this isn’t a crazy tornado setup but could be a nice hail setup with lower dews/very cool mid levels/steep mid level lapse rates 545E30EA-5033-4C7D-9DCF-91DFC95DF02F.png953EFA07-B9EC-4FF2-8570-2D612C1B1CE5.png
 
This will be a fun weather system to track.. very dynamic stuff.. severe threat sneaking up if we can get a solid southerly flow set up before the cold front kicks through this could be interesting. Quite the windy morning regardless .. and of course the NAM throwing some flake bones to us on the backsideE18E83C2-5F52-43F6-9327-2C925A9B6509.png5F00640D-3BC6-4031-B7EE-0FB54DF71117.png
 
I am certainly hoping this is the last trick freeze for USDA Zones 7 and Zones 8 for this year in the South. We have tons of stuff blooming - especially fruit trees. Looks absolutely devastating for areas all the way to the coast. What my Grandmother called a black frost.
 
MichaelJ said:
I think the low nighttime temps will gradually rise as we get close to Sat
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Often I would agree with this due to the continued cold bias of model consensus. However, as you know, cold biased doesn’t mean too cold all of the time but rather too cold on average. I’ve been following the modeled 3/13 lows for quite a few days now and they really haven’t been warming and we’re getting close to the event. It has been more like one run warmer followed by the next run colder, etc. Back and forth. More typically, we would have seen some model warming by now. Also, this is a true Arctic airmass with very cold 850s for mid-March. So, I think the cold modeled lows will hold (no, not the CMC’s ridiculous cold lol). The GFS is my model of choice and it has been fairly consistent for days.

So, Im going with FFC’s low 20s at Atlanta and think even KATL will end up 23 or lower. Some ATL N burbs could see high teens. I like upper 20s down my way and 30 or lower for @pcbjr ‘s abode on the northside of Hogtown.
 
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GaWx said:
Often I would agree with this due to the continued cold bias of model consensus. However, as you know, cold biased doesn’t mean too cold all of the time but rather too cold on average. I’ve been following the modeled 3/13 lows for quite a few days now and they really haven’t been warming and we’re getting close to the event. It has been more like one run warmer followed by the next run colder, etc. Back and forth. More typically, we would have seen some model warming by now. Also, this is a true Arctic airmass with very cold 850s for mid-March. So, I think the cold modeled lows will hold (no, not the CMC’s ridiculous cold lol). The GFS is my model of choice and it has been fairly consistent for days.

So, Im going with FFC’s low 20s at Atlanta and think even KATL will end up 23 or lower. Done ATL N burbs could see high teens. I like upper 20s down my way and 30 or lower for @pcbjr ‘s abode on the northside of Hogtown.
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I bet you don’t drop below 30 . Atlanta won’t drop below 25. Same for RDU. That’s my wager !
 
From an agricultural/horticultural standpoint, anything 28 and below for more than a few hours becomes quite damaging for things in bloom. In tight bud, they can take it down to the low to mid 20's for several hours. 28 degrees is a very crucial line. Most Spring freezes are between 28 and 32 degrees at this time of year and they usually only last for no more than 4 hours in the wee hours of the morning. Most temperate vegetation can handle that scenario. But low 20's for 8 hours blackens things and growth has to begin all over again from lateral buds. Much of the Deep South's mast crop may be destroyed over this weekend as the oaks are blooming in many places...especially along and south of the I-20 corridor all the way to within 10 miles of the beaches...If what the model consensus is showing is true.

What is interesting is seeing the above freezing temps behind the precip areas on the maps from 6pm to 12am tomorrow night.
 
For winter weather central Mississippi is much more exciting than ATL. Looking forward to the warmth ahead.


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