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Pattern March Thread

Lickwx said:
I’d wager it gets no where near that cold . Adjective driven cold tends to be portrayed colder than reality . It’s radiational cooling they miss . I’d be surprised if RDU even dropped below 25.
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The wager I had against you for Feb 1-14 was a fail but I’ll try again this time at least for KATL. With 850s Saturday evening projected to plummet to near -11 to -12 at ATL/-13 to -14 at RDU (both extremely rare that late in the season) and a rare sub 970 mb storm forecasted for New England allowing for highly unusual very strong CAA, this is such an anomalous setup. Also, at KATL, it is the opposite in that it only does well with advective cold. It is about the worst major station during radiation cooling situations.
 
GaWx said:
The wager I had against you for Feb 1-14 was a fail but I’ll try again this time at least for KATL. With 850s Saturday evening projected to plummet to near -11 to -12 at ATL/-13 to -14 at RDU (both extremely rare that late in the season) and a rare sub 970 mb storm forecasted for New England allowing for highly unusual very strong CAA, this is such an anomalous setup. Also, at KATL, it is the opposite in that it only does well with advective cold. It is about the worst major station during radiation cooling situations.
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That’s true that with a UHI station it will only match surroundings with good advection . I’m just wagering it doesn’t get that cold period , but it could . I’d lean against it .
 
Lickwx said:
I’d wager it gets no where near that cold . Adjective driven cold tends to be portrayed colder than reality . It’s radiational cooling they miss . I’d be surprised if RDU even dropped below 25.
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Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
 
ILMRoss said:
Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
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Lol thanks for quoting me . I saw I wrote “ adjective “ driven cold . Hah!
 
This has nothing to do with March but I wanted to put it in here so more people can see it. It’s a weather site I stumbled across a few days ago and it’s pretty cool. It has past weather temps, rain and snow from many years back for a lot of locations. For Nashville it goes all the way back to 1948. It’s called extreme weather watch.

Extreme Weather Watch

www.extremeweatherwatch.com www.extremeweatherwatch.com
 
ILMRoss said:
Yeah completely agree with this. Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios. They always have trouble with mixing (turbulent mixing, not precip, lol). At this point I think that this weekend is going to be a lot of peoples last freeze, maybe even my last freeze (we'll see).
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You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”

1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?

2. The 12Z GFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z in many locations with not as cold 850s and at 2m. At ATL, it has the coldest 850 at -9 C instead of the -12 C of the 6Z/18Z run and -10 C of the 0Z run. It has middle 20s (similar to the 0Z run) instead of the low 20s of the 6Z/18Z for the 3/13 low.

At SAV it has 30-31 instead of the upper 20s of the prior 3 runs and it has above 32 at JAX/GNV instead of the freezes of the 6Z/18Z and the near 32 of the 0Z.

79C90181-48F0-4BAF-B404-BDC853392F47.png
 
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CTG lightning just hit nearby in a developing storm. First time in a long time here.
 
GaWx said:
You said: “Models always seem to be too warm in windy, no radiation just *brutal cold* scenarios.”

1. Too warm or too cold in windy scenarios? Do you have a typo in what you said?

2. The 12Z GFS isn’t as cold as the 6Z in many locations with not as cold 850s and at 2m. At ATL, it has the coldest 850 at -9 C instead of the -12 C of the 6Z/18Z run and -10 C of the 0Z run. It has middle 20s (similar to the 0Z run) instead of the low 20s of the 6Z/18Z for the 3/13 low.

At SAV it has 30-31 instead of the upper 20s of the prior 3 runs and it has above 32 at JAX/GNV instead of the freezes of the 6Z/18Z and the near 32 of the 0Z.

View attachment 115129
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The 18Z GFS has come back slightly colder than the 12Z for lows on 3/13 at ATL and to its SE

gfsop_18_t2ms_gc_h_0090.png

This is in association with colder 850s vs the 12Z:gfsop_18_p850ts_gc_h_0078.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Correction: This weekend looks Gorgeous; the last weekend before the horrific summer of 7 looong months begins. I'll be ignoring those ugly Fro maps till October!
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It is still early enough for the bulk of the SE and especially up your way and further north, to have a few more gorgeously dry, pleasant weekends even assuming a warm spring (not cold like this one but still pleasantly cool to mild with low RH). Typically there is at least one chilly period in April. I know that many Masters golf tourneys have very nice days and chilly nights. Canadian highs don't typically just go cold turkey on dropping well down into the US until at least well into spring.
 
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