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Pattern March Thread

For the first time in a while, models are switching up the regime around Alaska to a very +EPO/AK vortex, which is responsible for mid pacific air across much of NA and gets rid of the Hudson Bay TPV/ eliminates cold on our side. very very warm look, this look is one of the warmest possible for this time of the year, other years that looked similar was ding ding ding March 2012 !! C758CD43-934A-4BEA-A4EB-BDB71E0AE940.png08219B9C-7CA2-4080-9F5C-913BAA633C03.pngF773BF79-2E27-4F8D-AFCF-CC850D9CDFD4.pngC93FC516-95A2-4B7A-A201-10825703EF9C.png
 
FFC is projecting for Saturday 3/13 in Atlanta a low in the middle 20s and a high in the low 40s. This would easily be the coldest high since late January and could also be the coldest low since then for much of the area. There have been only 3 colder highs than low 40s so far this season.

Edit: I just realized that the midnight high for 3/13 would likely be 50+ per models. So, the low 40s is just PM high. So, never mind about the high being projected to be the coldest since late January as that's highly unlikely for the calendar day.
 
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GaWx said:
FFC is projecting for Saturday 3/13 in Atlanta a low in the middle 20s and a high in the low 40s. This would easily be the coldest high since late January and could also be the coldest low since then for much of the area. There have been only 3 colder highs than low 40s so far this season.

Edit: I just realized that the midnight high for 3/13 would likely be 50+ per models. So, the low 40s is just PM high. So, never mind about the high being projected to be the coldest since late January as that's highly unlikely for the calendar day.
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Up here, the wind chill will be below freezing during the daylight hours on Saturday, which compared to the past few days will be completely strange. High winds all day that day plus the cold as the first leaves are emerging and flowers are coming into bloom is going to be a massive shock.
 
Record low on 3/13 is 20 at rdu we currently have the cmc at 17, euro and icon at 23, and gfs at 26. Given that we likely stay windy Sunday morning I think the record is safe but still an upper tier cold air mass for mid March. Thankfully many things haven't started a full green up/planting cycle at this point so we are likely to avoid a big ag disaster but there will likely be some pain for anything that got excited and flowered, budded, bloomed, greened up over the past 10 days
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Europe's blazing too....looks like most of the cold air is locked up in the arctic regions. This weekend truly looks like the end of winter.
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Yeah possibly, really warm look overall. I’d say the only thing that concerns me is that +SCAND, can sometimes be a precursor to a -NAO
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Europe's blazing too....looks like most of the cold air is locked up in the arctic regions. This weekend truly looks like the end of winter.
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Somehow, the Easter Bunny always finds a way to open the fridge. :p
 
18Z GFS is the coldest run yet for the deep SE for lows on 3/13 with upper 20s CHS-SAV-Brunswick, ~30 for JAX to @pcbjr , 32 down almost to Ocala, and 39 down to a ~Ft. Myers to Lake Okeechobee line! A 30 at Jacksonville would be a new record as would 39 at Ft. Myers.

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GaWx said:
18Z GFS is the coldest run yet for the deep SE for lows on 3/13 with upper 20s CHS-SAV-Brunswick, ~30 for JAX to @pcbjr , 32 down almost to Ocala, and 39 down to a ~Ft. Myers to Lake Okeechobee line! A 30 at Jacksonville would be a new record as would 39 at Ft. Myers.

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Just need to scoot those blues east of the mountains!
 
SD said:
Record low on 3/13 is 20 at rdu we currently have the cmc at 17, euro and icon at 23, and gfs at 26. Given that we likely stay windy Sunday morning I think the record is safe but still an upper tier cold air mass for mid March. Thankfully many things haven't started a full green up/planting cycle at this point so we are likely to avoid a big ag disaster but there will likely be some pain for anything that got excited and flowered, budded, bloomed, greened up over the past 10 days
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Check the landscape today wen it lights up outside. The Bradford Pears have all shot out along with the forsythia as usual. All those red limbs that have been swelling up I'm thinking pop out today. Wife said we had a huge storm around 3;30, but I snoozed right on through it. Water standing everywhere, which is a good sign as we get on into spring.
 
The low 3/13 (Sunday) at KATL has an excellent chance at being the coldest of the season with low 20s expected even at the airport due to winds staying up, which usually helps that station be close to as cold as surrounding areas and considering that it should fall below 32 by soon after sunset. As of now, the coldest of the season to date is 26, reached three times in January. The low 20s low would be the coldest in March since 2009.

The last times March had the coldest of the season were: 1998, 1993, 1980, 1960, 1932, 1925, 1914, 1901, 1892 (tie), and 1890. The coldest on 3/13 would be the third latest coldest on record behind only the 3/14 of 1993 (when there was 4” of snowcover from the blizzard) and the 3/19 of 1892 (a tie with January and was over a light snowcover). So, IF there’s no snowcover this time, it would become the latest in the season coldest with no snowcover.
 
GaWx said:
The low 3/13 (Sunday) at KATL has an excellent chance at being the coldest of the season with low 20s expected even at the airport due to winds staying up, which usually helps that station be close to as cold as surrounding areas and considering that it should fall below 32 by soon after sunset. As of now, the coldest of the season to date is 26, reached three times in January. The low 20s low would be the coldest in March since 2009.

The last times March had the coldest of the season were: 1998, 1993, 1980, 1960, 1932, 1925, 1914, 1901, 1892 (tie), and 1890. The coldest on 3/13 would be the third latest coldest on record behind only the 3/14 of 1993 (when there was 4” of snowcover from the blizzard) and the 3/19 of 1892 (a tie with January and was over a light snowcover). So, IF there’s no snowcover this time, it would become the latest in the season coldest with no snowcover.
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I’d wager it gets no where near that cold . Advective driven cold tends to be portrayed colder than reality . It’s radiational cooling they miss . I’d be surprised if RDU even dropped below 25.
 
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