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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

Hoping that the threat diminishes heading into the weekend. Also want to thank y’all for what you post and even though I rarely have anything to contribute, your insight helps to keep people safe and allows me to relay critical information to friends and family. Unfortunately, my family was the one who lost 7 members in the Beauregard tornado. One of the first times I wasn’t able to post to FB/alert people of a potentially dangerous situation.

I’ll be keeping a closer eye on this threat than most and keeping an even more wary eye on where the bullseye might be, should this threat pan out.

Thanks again for everything y’all post on this thread and all others in this forum.


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TateofGA said:
Hoping that the threat diminishes heading into the weekend. Also want to thank y’all for what you post and even though I rarely have anything to contribute, your insight helps to keep people safe and allows me to relay critical information to friends and family. Unfortunately, my family was the one who lost 7 members in the Beauregard tornado. One of the first times I wasn’t able to post to FB/alert people of a potentially dangerous situation.

I’ll be keeping a closer eye on this threat than most and keeping an even more wary eye on where the bullseye might be, should this threat pan out.

Thanks again for everything y’all post on this thread and all others in this forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Sorry for your losses man, praying for yall, it’s truly upsetting how these things can take away somebody you love, agree with what you said, hoping this thing can diminish as time gets closer because I’m pretty sure no part of the SE wants any severe WX
 
How's the severe weather threat look now ? Any updates
 
This coming from the NWS in Birmingham, appears instability is the only issue from having a high end tornado event. Atleast in central alabama. Screenshot_20190306-162222_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
TateofGA said:
Hoping that the threat diminishes heading into the weekend. Also want to thank y’all for what you post and even though I rarely have anything to contribute, your insight helps to keep people safe and allows me to relay critical information to friends and family. Unfortunately, my family was the one who lost 7 members in the Beauregard tornado. One of the first times I wasn’t able to post to FB/alert people of a potentially dangerous situation.

I’ll be keeping a closer eye on this threat than most and keeping an even more wary eye on where the bullseye might be, should this threat pan out.

Thanks again for everything y’all post on this thread and all others in this forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Man dude, sorry for your loss!! I had just heard this story yesterday!
 
Zander98al said:
This coming from the NWS in Birmingham, appears instability is the only issue from having a high end tornado event. Atleast in central alabama. View attachment 17460
Click to expand...

All the smith station AL wedge tornado needed was 500-750 jkg of SFC cape, sure every setup is different but I’d expect for short range models to increase instability a little bit like they always do
 
TateofGA said:
Hoping that the threat diminishes heading into the weekend. Also want to thank y’all for what you post and even though I rarely have anything to contribute, your insight helps to keep people safe and allows me to relay critical information to friends and family. Unfortunately, my family was the one who lost 7 members in the Beauregard tornado. One of the first times I wasn’t able to post to FB/alert people of a potentially dangerous situation.

I’ll be keeping a closer eye on this threat than most and keeping an even more wary eye on where the bullseye might be, should this threat pan out.

Thanks again for everything y’all post on this thread and all others in this forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Really sorry for your loss. I can’t imagine how difficult going through something like that must be. Please don’t ever worry about the value of your contributions. Everyone is here because they share a similar interest. The interaction is the contribution. The discussions, the banter, the friendships — all of it is worthwhile and valuable.

Anyway, thank you for posting your story. It is an excellent reminder to all of us to cherish both the time that we have and the people that surround us, because none of it is guaranteed to endure. And at the end of the day, that one admonition is far more valuable than any chart that can be posted here.
 
Zander98al said:
This coming from the NWS in Birmingham, appears instability is the only issue from having a high end tornado event. Atleast in central alabama. View attachment 17460
Click to expand...

That is still the largest question in my mind. The 12z Euro is very impressive with synoptics, but it generally has surface cape between 250-750 with a small pocket or so of maybe 1000. It also has a very junky warm sector.
 
NAM still looks bad for our friends further west (southern Great Plains), EML, strong instability and good capping
 
day3otlk_0830.gif
 
For those in the majority of GA and then the Carolinas, the ingredients really go to crap on the SREF as the surface low climbs North IRT tornadic activity.

Worth keeping a close eye on regardless, as this can change. Also, it's starting to look quite concerning for our LA,MS,AL,TN,AR friends
 
Shawn said:
For those in the majority of GA and then the Carolinas, the ingredients really go to crap on the SREF as the surface low climbs North IRT tornadic activity.

Worth keeping a close eye on regardless, as this can change. Also, it's starting to look quite concerning for our LA,MS,AL,TN,AR friends
Click to expand...
The latest trend seems to want put more of west Tennessee in a danger zone along with north ms. Arkansas ... eml looks pretty stout ...
 
The 12z nam is favoring severe weather around mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Looks like for alabama the timing of helicity and instability are off. Although the 3k nam is more agressive with instability. I wonder if models are underestimating the moisture influx.
 
Brad Travis just gave first alert but the threat is pretty low right now due to rain cooled air on Saturday as it stands
 
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