Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS went bonkers with some of perameters around MS & AL this run. Holy moly
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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Any update with this threat?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Models are a little spread out with solutions still. A threat still remains.
SW SHELBY CO AL
Hpdb301
Member
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but Some gulf coast showers are showing on simulated radar that may muck up the areas further north. But let’s face it, we’re still 4-5 days out, for all we know, it could be snowing by Saturday (sarcasm only there is no snow!). But certainly think it’s a system that should be watched!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snowflowxxl
Member
0z runs have been less than impressive as far as severe weather.
HOLY BATMAN AT THE SB CAPE
06Z NAM LOOKING NASTY!!!!
Scott81
Member
Is it possible that this could end up being a big rain event for north alabama??
Possibly so just have to keep an eye on the short range models as we get closer to the event roughly 60hrs and closer
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AFD FROM BMX
A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST & EJECT INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN
ONGOING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS & LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY (MRV), THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AS THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP ALONG AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WEST OF THE MRV. AS A RESULT, A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
NEAR THE ARKLATEX & QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS UNDERGOING NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREAFTER, THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT & LLJ AXIS & ENTER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE LLJ (40-60 KTS AT 850MB),
INCREASED MOISTURE & INSTABILITY AVAILABILITY, AS WELL WESTERLY DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF ~40-60 KTS, ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD. DESPITE LOSING DIABATIC HEATING, OVERNIGHT SBCAPE VALUES
OF 250-750 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE DEEP-
LAYER FORCING & AMPLE KINETIC WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AS DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST
HODOGRAPH CURVATURES & 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS HIGH AS 450-600 M2/S2.
FELT THIS WAS THE PLAN OF ACTION FOR NOW & WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE
THE SEVERE RISK AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TIMING WILL
STILL BE GENERALLY ADVERTISED AS SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT (&
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING), THOUGH CHANGES TO THIS WILL BE
SHARPENED IN THAT COMING DAYS ALSO.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST & EJECT INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN
ONGOING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS & LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY (MRV), THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AS THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP ALONG AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WEST OF THE MRV. AS A RESULT, A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
NEAR THE ARKLATEX & QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS UNDERGOING NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREAFTER, THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT & LLJ AXIS & ENTER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE LLJ (40-60 KTS AT 850MB),
INCREASED MOISTURE & INSTABILITY AVAILABILITY, AS WELL WESTERLY DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF ~40-60 KTS, ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD. DESPITE LOSING DIABATIC HEATING, OVERNIGHT SBCAPE VALUES
OF 250-750 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE DEEP-
LAYER FORCING & AMPLE KINETIC WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AS DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST
HODOGRAPH CURVATURES & 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS HIGH AS 450-600 M2/S2.
FELT THIS WAS THE PLAN OF ACTION FOR NOW & WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE
THE SEVERE RISK AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TIMING WILL
STILL BE GENERALLY ADVERTISED AS SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT (&
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING), THOUGH CHANGES TO THIS WILL BE
SHARPENED IN THAT COMING DAYS ALSO.
Some of those parameters could support violent tornadoes in the southern plains if the CAP breaks
SPC day 4
SPC day 5
SPC day 5
THAT DAY 4 GREW COMPARED TO THE DAY 5 THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY
Interesting details in article about Lee County Tornado thought would share he since its on the subject of SE severe weather. It's a reminder of why many of us follow weather and metreology to be prepared as much as one possible can for truly dangerous weather for our families and friends.
https://news.yahoo.com/people-path-deadly-170-mph-195110416.html
https://news.yahoo.com/people-path-deadly-170-mph-195110416.html
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The day 5 outlook looks like the same areas that just had the tornado outbreak.