• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

FROM BMX NWS

GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WELL OFF INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, BUT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE.
THIS TROUGH WOULD BE PART OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
CONFIGURATION & WOULD INCLUDE A LARGE SYNOPTIC AREA OF DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT RISES & ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. AS THIS DYNAMIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO DEEP-LAYER
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST IN A BROAD REGION CENTERED ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST DIRECTION & SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, ONGOING
CONVECTIVE WEATHER WOULD ENTER AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY & INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF CURRENT SOLUTIONS VERIFY, THIS
WOULD BE A SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH & ASSOCIATED JET MAX TO
OUR NORTHWEST, AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE WEAKENING. HOWEVER, AN
EXAMINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDES SBCAPE ~250-750
J/KG (DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 60S) WITH 50-60 KTS OF WESTERLY DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ALABAMA WITH AN ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET. SO DESPITE
LOSING DIABATIC HEATING & DEEP-LAYER FORCING, ANY ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
SPECIFIC DETAILS THIS FAR OUT, HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO GIVEN THE STEADINESS OF THIS
SIGNAL THAT PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES &
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS
 
AND THE HWO FROM BMX NWS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SATURDAY. THE THREAT MAY BEGIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
 
Remember these models are the same ones that kept showing fantasy extreme cold and fantasy wintry precip. so don't be shocked if they do a 180 now as well. Not saying they will but I personally don't trust them much past 24 hours
 
MichaelJ said:
Remember these models are the same ones that kept showing fantasy extreme cold and fantasy wintry precip. so don't be shocked if they do a 180 now as well. Not saying they will but I personally don't trust them much past 24 hours
Click to expand...
And also same ones that showed the severe we Sunday then did a 180 and then another 180 and u see what happened

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
And also same ones that showed the severe we Sunday then did a 180 and then another 180 and u see what happened

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt it could switch several times on some models between now and then and that is exactly my point. Don't go running to the store to buy bread and milk based on a wintry forecast 4-10 days ahead and don't go digging a basement for the same during severe or hurricane season either. The only thing you can reliably depend on being accurate that far out on the models is heat in the summer in the SE.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top