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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

This is actually the most severe sounding I’ve have seen for my area this year
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Surface low pressure shifting across the Rockies Day 5, in
conjunction with the upper trough, is progged to deepen in lee of
the Front Range by the start of the Day 6 period (Saturday 3-9). At
this point, the models begin to diverge substantially in terms of
solutions. The GFS is much deeper with the upper system as it
emerges into the Plains, with evolution into a deep closed low as it
crosses the central U.S. Day 6. Meanwhile, the ECMWF advances this
feature as a much weaker open wave, and as a result,
similar/significant differences exist between the two models with
respect to strength/development of the associated surface low. By
late afternoon Day 6, the GFS depicts a surface cyclone in the
vicinity of the mid-Missouri Valley that is 10 to 12 mb deeper than
the ECMWF's low. Though severe risk would appear to be on the
increase by the upcoming weekend as this western troughing reaches
the central U.S., no risk areas will be highlighted at this time,
given the substantial differences in model solutions.

Prior to the emergence of this system into the Plains, thunder will
likely accompany the advance of this system across the Intermountain
West, but weak instability should preclude appreciable severe risk
Day 4. Some risk for hail may evolve late Day 5, across the
Oklahoma vicinity, with potential for elevated/nocturnal storms
developing north of a Texas warm front in a zone of increasing warm
advection/isentropic lift ahead of the advancing trough. However,
risk remains uncertain enough to preclude issuance of a 15%
probability area this forecast.
Click to expand...
Here's what the SPC says.
 
12 z gfs holds serve... significant severe threat ...wants to bomb out the slp over central Missouri... nice warm sector out ahead reaching far north as southern Illinois pushing cape up ... the low level shear is crazy ... eml with this system is very impressive ...
 
12z GFS, the main show is on Saturday, but on Sunday it looks like a lot of the areas just hit are right back in the thick of things.
3:4gfs supercell.png3:4 helicity.png3:4 GFS.png
 
Maybe out west some but I'd bet that thermos will be pitiful for this next event. GFS isn't particularly impressive, and has been trending less so at 500mb.

I'd put my eye down the road in terms of a large scale event.
 
Reminder: Cape is not the only ingredient needed for strong storm development. Cape is a major factor of course, but we need gun powder and a trigger further into AL/GA/Carolinas
 
Synoptically the 12z Euro is very dangerous for the south. Even with the slp well to the north, surface winds are out of the south, with a strong LLJ and 500mb winds westerly across the front.

The issue is as I mentioned earlier very low instability which is not shocking considering the massive cold blast. Not expecting much ATM.
 
Shawn said:
Reminder: Cape is not the only ingredient needed for strong storm development. Cape is a major factor of course, but we need gun powder and a trigger further into AL/GA/Carolinas
Click to expand...
Do you think this next severe weather event could be worst for us here in CAE as the one yesterday?
 
Arcc said:
Synoptically the 12z Euro is very dangerous for the south. Even with the slp well to the north, surface winds are out of the south, with a strong LLJ and 500mb winds westerly across the front.

The issue is as I mentioned earlier very low instability which is not shocking considering the massive cold blast. Not expecting much ATM.
Click to expand...

Arcc, im in the Arkansas area. Would we have a better chance at svr or not? Just curious thanks
 
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