• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

FROM BMX NWS

GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WELL OFF INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, BUT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE.
THIS TROUGH WOULD BE PART OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
CONFIGURATION & WOULD INCLUDE A LARGE SYNOPTIC AREA OF DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT RISES & ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. AS THIS DYNAMIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO DEEP-LAYER
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST IN A BROAD REGION CENTERED ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST DIRECTION & SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, ONGOING
CONVECTIVE WEATHER WOULD ENTER AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY & INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF CURRENT SOLUTIONS VERIFY, THIS
WOULD BE A SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH & ASSOCIATED JET MAX TO
OUR NORTHWEST, AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE WEAKENING. HOWEVER, AN
EXAMINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INCLUDES SBCAPE ~250-750
J/KG (DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 60S) WITH 50-60 KTS OF WESTERLY DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ALABAMA WITH AN ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET. SO DESPITE
LOSING DIABATIC HEATING & DEEP-LAYER FORCING, ANY ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
SPECIFIC DETAILS THIS FAR OUT, HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO GIVEN THE STEADINESS OF THIS
SIGNAL THAT PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES &
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS
 
AND THE HWO FROM BMX NWS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SATURDAY. THE THREAT MAY BEGIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
 
Remember these models are the same ones that kept showing fantasy extreme cold and fantasy wintry precip. so don't be shocked if they do a 180 now as well. Not saying they will but I personally don't trust them much past 24 hours
 
MichaelJ said:
Remember these models are the same ones that kept showing fantasy extreme cold and fantasy wintry precip. so don't be shocked if they do a 180 now as well. Not saying they will but I personally don't trust them much past 24 hours
Click to expand...
And also same ones that showed the severe we Sunday then did a 180 and then another 180 and u see what happened

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
And also same ones that showed the severe we Sunday then did a 180 and then another 180 and u see what happened

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Oh no doubt it could switch several times on some models between now and then and that is exactly my point. Don't go running to the store to buy bread and milk based on a wintry forecast 4-10 days ahead and don't go digging a basement for the same during severe or hurricane season either. The only thing you can reliably depend on being accurate that far out on the models is heat in the summer in the SE.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Any update with this threat?
Click to expand...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png
 
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but Some gulf coast showers are showing on simulated radar that may muck up the areas further north. But let’s face it, we’re still 4-5 days out, for all we know, it could be snowing by Saturday (sarcasm only there is no snow!). But certainly think it’s a system that should be watched!
 
Scott81 said:
Is it possible that this could end up being a big rain event for north alabama??
Click to expand...
Possibly so just have to keep an eye on the short range models as we get closer to the event roughly 60hrs and closer

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 
AFD FROM BMX

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST & EJECT INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN
ONGOING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS & LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY (MRV), THE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AS THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP ALONG AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WEST OF THE MRV. AS A RESULT, A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
NEAR THE ARKLATEX & QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS UNDERGOING NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREAFTER, THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT & LLJ AXIS & ENTER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE LLJ (40-60 KTS AT 850MB),
INCREASED MOISTURE & INSTABILITY AVAILABILITY, AS WELL WESTERLY DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF ~40-60 KTS, ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD. DESPITE LOSING DIABATIC HEATING, OVERNIGHT SBCAPE VALUES
OF 250-750 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE DEEP-
LAYER FORCING & AMPLE KINETIC WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AS DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST
HODOGRAPH CURVATURES & 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS HIGH AS 450-600 M2/S2.
FELT THIS WAS THE PLAN OF ACTION FOR NOW & WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE
THE SEVERE RISK AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TIMING WILL
STILL BE GENERALLY ADVERTISED AS SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT (&
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING), THOUGH CHANGES TO THIS WILL BE
SHARPENED IN THAT COMING DAYS ALSO.
 
The day 5 outlook looks like the same areas that just had the tornado outbreak.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top