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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

Rick said:
Do yall think they are being conservative with the threat right now ?
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IMO I THINK THEY ARE .....I THINK THEY ARE GOING OFF THE NAM. THE HRRR IS WAY NASTIER THEN IT, AND THE HRRR EVEN VERIFIED ON THE LAST EVENTS THAT ROCKED SOUTH ALABAMA
 
Which model is more accurate in short term severe weather events? I just saw at least they have a hatched area so that's concerning but appropriate . I reckon we will know more in the am how the environment will be .
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
CLEARLY THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SOUTH TO ME 70'S TO THE SOUTH AND 60'S TO THE NORTH
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Long live the wedge. Don’t get me wrong, I love a good thunderstorm with violent lightning but thats about as severe as I like it. I’ve been in a microburst with 100mph straight line winds and I’ve been on the outer edge of a small tornado....and no thanks
 
New hrrr wants to show a long track supercell in northern AL it appears out ahead of the main activity, weird
 
First watches of the day up right now just a severe thunderstorm watch but now 80 percent of additional tornado watch about to be issued
 
FRESH AFD FRO NWS BMX.... LOOK AT THE WORDING IN RED TEXT

THE MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (6PM OR SO). GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH
HIGHER IN RECENT RUNS WITH THE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CAMS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY, AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND IT IS
MOSTLY DUE TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR BUILDS IN AND HOW MUCH
SURFACE HEATING WE GET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, SO I EXPECT ANY WARMING WILL COME FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WHICH WAS UNDERPLAYED YESTERDAY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE,
I'VE TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE MORNING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO BE OVERCOME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, WHICH MEANS THE SLIGHTEST CHANGE IN
SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS COULD MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SOME OF
THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1000+ J/KG OF SFC CAPE, WHICH
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY HIGH (0-3KM SRH >
650 M2/S2, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 50KTS) IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ALL OF THESE MESOSCALE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES, AND HAIL.

SOME OF THE NEGATING FACTORS IN THE SEVERE THREAT ARE GENERALLY WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. YES, WE HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT THE
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SPLIT WITH THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. THE LACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET OVERLAPPING THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD LIMIT HOW LONG UPDRAFTS CAN
BE SUSTAINED BEFORE THEY COLLAPSE ON THEMSELVES. FURTHERMORE, THE
MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM AT 500MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, SO WE ACTUALLY GET SOME NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE. ALSO, THE HEIGHT TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT TODAY, WHICH DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY SUPPORT
SYNOPTIC LIFT. ESSENTIALLY, MOST OF THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY IN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
AND WHETHER IT CAN OVERCOME THE NEGATING FACTORS ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES. I
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT TO "ENHANCED" FOR PORTIONS OF MARION AND
LAMAR COUNTIES DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SYNOPTIC VARIABLES WIN-
OUT AND LIMIT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS AS THEY GET INTO OUR
AREA. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE DESTABILIZE EVEN MORE THAN WHAT
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. A STRONG TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACHES
THE I-59 CORRIDOR, INSTABILITY GENERALLY DECREASES, SURFACE WINDS
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND WE BEGIN TO SEE SYNOPTIC
HEIGHT RISES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE AND A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN
STORM STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE I-59 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
HAS ALSO BECOME OCCLUDED, LIMITING THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THEREFORE, EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, LACKING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND VEERED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS. THEREFORE, I WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 
Rick said:
Which model is more accurate in short term severe weather events? I just saw at least they have a hatched area so that's concerning but appropriate . I reckon we will know more in the am how the environment will be .
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No doubt, WRF. I blend the two main ones to get a good idea. One is usually a tad bullish and the other is too weak, but using both you get a good idea.
 
Have to watch the storms but SPC said likely mixed modes so that'll limit the threat of tornadoes If so we will see
 
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