Best lift/forcing moving out of the area, soundings also support a bit more linear activity aswell at that time
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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather
Best lift/forcing moving out of the area, soundings also support a bit more linear activity aswell at that time
Here’s a sounding from the end of the Hrrr for the areas with higher SPCs/STPs, note the skinny CAPE, lackluster 3CAPE, sfc-3km lapses suck, what looks like a weak stable layer near the sfc developing, still good wind energy/helicity but it’s definitely not a strong tornado sounding, more of a isolated spin up type of sounding 
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Pretty big changes to the new Day 2
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the biggest threat keeps going north.
Snowflowxxl
Member
First time in a while I don’t really agree with a SPC outlook. Wouldn’t be suprised if they shift it some more tonight.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
tennessee storm
Member
Agree. Looks like overall better dynamics getting pulled north with the departing slp... also short range also picking up the warm front getting further north .... bit
Agree, if y’all can manage to get some instability, then oof, best lift/forcing appears over western TN, please hope for no sun and no discrete supercells or strong tornadoes are possible if those 2 things occur, hope for linear convection, so much wind energy/SRH around there aswell
Snowflowxxl
Member
Really not sure why the SPC took so much of Mississippi out of the risk for tomorrow. Miss, Ark, TN look to be in for a rough one.
Oh my
Thing is tho is that other parameters are quite nasty but also so far there are things holding this back, 3CAPE is lacking a lot you can actually see a very weak Cap/EML, nicely moist column, strong SRH/shear, decent SBcape
Z
Zander98al
Guest
STP ^^ Supercell composite below from 21z rap at 3 o'clock
That looks worrying.
Dang, expect hail/large hail reports from NE Oklahoma/SE Kansas in the morning, I know that aint the SE but if you like a elevated t-storm sounding that could support hail, this is it chief
Snowflowxxl
Member
Im expecting an uptick in wording from the SPC tonight. HRRR comes in looking ripe each run.
Did well with the last 2 events, also the HRRRE did beastly with this last event
Looks like low topped supercells/cold core tornadoes or hail may possibly occur in eastern KS tommorow afternoon since there will be decent CAPE/3CAPE, steep lapse rates and a low equilibrium layer, cool dynamic system to say the least, weather is truly interesting
I want to also note that the hrrr has been trending to these storms looking less surface-based and a tad more elevated, struggling with CAPE in the lower levels
tennessee storm
Member
talking about the storms overnight tonight? back further west...?