Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

[Zander98al]

Wouldn't be suprised to see SPC go Enhanced tonight for some areas of Ark,LA,Miss

Same, i think theyll include some of west and northwest alabama as well, especially if 00z nam comes in a little aggressive like the 18z.

 

[stormcentral]

 

[tennessee storm]

Same, i think theyll include some of west and northwest alabama as well, especially if 00z nam comes in a little aggressive like the 18z.

Parts of west Tennessee also

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is what I’m wondering ^ whether there can be a lag between best shear and instability

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I could see early convection messing up any kind of threat here. Parameters still ripe for something, but a lot of junk in the way.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Weird sounding, lapses are ok, SFC-based CAPE is ok, shear is strong but what has my attention is low level instability/lapses, 200 jkg of 3CAPE ?, pretty steep low level lapse rates, good moist layer (SFC-700 hPa) decent hodo, very low cloud bases, high helicity, this sounding could actually support a violent tornado but it’s very hard to find soundings similar to these, this is from northern-central Arkansas

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s one from northern MS, not a crazy tornadic sounding but dang my goodness that hodo and helicity

 

[jackendrickwx]

Ruh roh

 

[stormcentral]

 

[CRG560]

Any chance the enhanced area slides over into Alabama between now and tomorrow?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

3km just isn’t all that impressive. Storms have a hard time firing up after convection moves through

 

[Brick Tamland]

Ruh roh

It's hard to tell now if the enhanced area is the SPC playing it safe after not having an enhanced area last weekend with the tornado outbreak, or if it's a legit enhanced threat.

 

[NWTENN]

It's hard to tell now if the enhanced area is the SPC playing it safe after not having an enhanced area last weekend with the tornado outbreak, or if it's a legit enhanced threat.

I doubt last weekend has anything to do with it at all. IMHO, the SPC creates their forecasts and graphics based on their best understanding of what the weather is most likely to do. It would be foolish to do anything else.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

SPC was perfect last week the enhanced risk over the area. Nothing supported going any higher than they did at the time.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Okay, I thought they only had a slight risk. Personally, I think the marginal and slight categories, and the enhanced and moderate categories sound the same.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

These are the kinda things that make you question the threat

 

[Zander98al]

the HRRR, looks impressive but doesn't show storms firing up in the zones that have the best parameters

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This on the other hand shows that the potential is there for a big day. Gonna be a tough call

 

[Zander98al]

This on the other hand shows that the potential is there for a big day. Gonna be a tough call
View attachment 17505

If moisture can be pulled in to north alabama like the HRRR shows then that might be somewhat true. The 15z rap looks worse than the HRRR as well.