March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[Myfrotho704_]

60% chance of a watch being issued

 

[Downeastnc]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

 

[Avalanche]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

View attachment 79582

I wouldnt be feeling good at all in your area. Pitt Co has seen this before. Be aware and ready!!

 

[mbway091]

I mean this is pretty scary on the face of it.....2K+SCAPE in this setup should be pretty damn bad.....

View attachment 79582

Stuff like this is why sticking with moderate for parts of ENC was a good idea, and why calling bust at like 4 am on the day of the event is probably a bad idea. I mean maybe it will, but it's still early and the potential is obviously still there.

 

[Avalanche]

I know we've seen our share of cold rain, but Id rather be under that classic mushroom top like Indiana is than dealing with this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That really does look like a dryline feature like the SPC says

 

[Shaggy]

Dewpoint up to 59 and should be breaking that 60 mark soon. Pretty solid recovery underway here. Took a bit longer to start to but its rolling along now.

 

[Avalanche]

Any hope that the Triangle undergoes that classic split we sometimes see from storms going across the foothills and breaking up into 2 squall lines?

 

[Ghost]

Sun is really trying to break through here in West Columbia SC. gets really bright for a while. 67 degrees

 

[RBR71]

This fog is wild

I was watching one of the storm chasers yesterday in Bama and at one point they had a difficult time seeing the tor due to a fog bank in front of it, crazy stuff.

 

[Webberweather53]

I have to agree w/ @Myfrotho704_ this setup in the Carolinas today feels a lot more like a south-central Plains pre-frontal dry line than a traditional cold front.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nasty

 

[Webberweather53]

I have to agree w/ @Myfrotho704_ this setup in the Carolinas today feels a lot more like a south-central Plains pre-frontal dry line than a traditional cold front.

Notice the lower dewpoints surge well out ahead of the main cold front closer to the axis of storms on models like the HRRR later this afternoon.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at the backing along the CAD boundary, esp at the SFC

 

[Webberweather53]

SPC has recently added a new product to their new mesoanalysis page (0-500m SRH). One of my colleagues at NC State has done work on this for his MS thesis and found it is a better predictor of tornadoes than 0-1km SRH. 0-500m SRH values of 200 m2/s2 strongly favors tornadoes, esp strong ones. It's something to watch over the course of today

 

[Shaggy]

Its rebounding out there but just feel like it would be a worse threat if we actually broke out into sun for a couple of hours.

 

[Webberweather53]

Look at the backing along the CAD boundary, esp at the SFCView attachment 79593View attachment 79594

Yep, this is exactly why there's a secondary max in tornado frequencies over the I-85 corridor apart from the "Carolina Alley" we've come to know in the Coastal Plain region. The enhanced vortical stretching off the mountains and retreating CAD locally enhance horizontal baroclinicity and the creation + pooling of relative vorticity that favors tornadogenesis in places like Charlotte-Greensboro. These tornadoes traditionally tend to be weaker/shorter-lived than those further east.

 

[znel52]

72 with a dewpoint of 68 currently at my place in Newport

 

[Avalanche]

Its rebounding out there but just feel like it would be a worse threat if we actually broke out into sun for a couple of hours.

Just like post-snowfall Im still not rooting for the sun!!!

 

[jackendrickwx]

Quite foggy but still wedged in at 53

 

[jackendrickwx]

65 about 35 miles south of me. A little nervous I’ll end up right along the boundary by peak heating

 

[ryan1234]

It wouldn't surprise me to see that enhanced risk go back a west a bit given the newest data. Probably an expansion of the mod risk as well.

 

[Shaggy]

Roughly a 10 degree rebound in both temps and DP here since 9am

 

[SD]

 

[Webberweather53]

The real soupy air just south & east of Fayetteville is surging into central NC now. Mid-upper 60s dews will be here before long

 

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like Greg Fishel thinks the hype might have been too much in regards to this being a big severe outbreak around here.

THESE SITUATIONS TROUBLE ME

As I mentioned earlier this week, the folks at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, possess some of the greatest minds in the world when it comes to severe weather forecasting. What troubles me is when I have a different take on things, and out of respect for them ask myself the following "What am I missing?". The most eye catching issue for me is the weakness of the low level flow over central North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. We'll start off with a rather intense low pressure area in southeast Missouri in the morning. It will weaken as a new area of low pressure forms east of the Appalachian mountains. This is hard to explain without graphics, but in effect the new area of low pressure will weaken the pressure gradient over the piedmont, thus reducing the low level flow of moisture into the piedmont, while shifting the strongest low level wind flow toward the coastal plain and the coast. That would leave the Triangle, and points north and west with a much lesser chance for a tornado outbreak, and shift that threat toward the I-95 corridor and points east. So at this point, I'd be more concerned if I lived in Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Wilson, Rocky Mount, and Roanoke Rapids, than I would be in Raleigh, Sanford, Durham, Henderson and Roxboro. I see no comparison between this event and the April 16, 2011 tornado outbreak. So, we're moving out of the speculation period and transitioning into the monitoring period. I'll provide frequent updates throughout the day. Nobody should let their guard down. Always better to be safe than sorry. I'm simply giving you my honest opinion as to who is at greatest risk. Stay tuned!

 

[LovingGulfLows]

This whole event has been a big dud here. It's so bizarre how I get more severe weather from random afternoon summer thunderstorms blowing up than I get from these large scale synoptic events.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Who was it that said don’t ever bet against the wedge. Hahaha

Me that was me ... it’s always been me .. CAD WILL ALWAYS WIN .. but I think central NC is very much in the game all models have significant parameters going up a lot from central NC to the coast.. anywhere there still has the potential for bad storms .. the warm sector is rushing in and models have it bursting through this dead CAD ...

 

[FortMillSCWx]

57/57 in Central Charlotte (Southend) Climbing quick.

 

[iGRXY]

It is 55 degrees with thick fog here. I see the storms just to my west but I don't know about any severe here. It's warm in Laurens so I thinks anderson to laurens to Union may have to worry about storms firing up.

 

[Webberweather53]

New tornado watch out for coastal GA & SC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ewww

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It’s so funny I woke up checked the models saw that what I was saying yesterday looks to be happening (line of storms is way faster than forecasted and so models showed that crapvection yesterday for us but I was almost certain that the speed of those storms would allow us to break out today in the warm sector and warm up quick. All the models have been forecasting this surge of warm sector into central NC and eastern Carolinas even since yesterday) and now that crapvection is leaving we have the opportunity to get fresh sun to fuel this event to from Raleigh Charlotte and east ... to my surprise I got on here and everyone was saying how much of a RIP this was and how the wedge always wins and all this jumbo Mumbo .. well temps are rising fast and that warm sector is busting through as it’s always been modeled .. only areas that “busted” out of this event are north west areas like Greensboro and Winston Salem ... everywhere else has always been game on

 

[Shaggy]

Climbing fast up to 66. At this rate I'll break 70 by 12:30

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So far it’s looking like upstate schools canceled school for drizzle

 

[JHS]

Quite foggy but still wedged in at 53

Warm air getting close now. It's still 58 here in Jonesville with fog, but 63 in Union and sun trying to break through. Line of storms in GA taking it's time coming east too.

 

[Cadi40]

Fog is now gone yet still very overcast with a temperature of 59, it was 57 about 10 minutes ago. I have a feeling in an hour or two the sun may start peaking through.

 

[Webberweather53]

Ewww View attachment 79599View attachment 79600

That looks nasty, stronger low-level lapse rates would be bad there. Legit large hail threat too w/ all that DCAPE & mid-level dry air coupled w/ the strong shear & CAPE

 

[JHS]

65 about 35 miles south of me. A little nervous I’ll end up right along the boundary by peak heating

Me or you may very well end up on the boundary at that time. It's about halfway between Jonesville and Union now.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

So far it’s looking like upstate schools canceled school for drizzle

You know it’s deeper than that.. they are just being as safe as possible .. if a true moderate risk was warranted then having people off the road and such is a good idea to keep everyone safe .. they acted as they should