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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

snowlover91 said:
Which is why I said the thick clouds, drizzle, cooler air being slow to move out, etc were other indications of a bust;)
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I understand this particular case looks like it's favoring a lower end event atm but just a piece of advice for enthusiasts, newbies, and/or amateurs like yourself, jumping the gun & outright saying a severe setup is a bust before anything actually happens or is verified thru post-event surveys is a good way to have egg on your face & doesn't look very professional. I speak from experience...
 
The models pretty much whiffed on the storms this morning in southern GA & FL. Seeing some hints that the northern portion of the QLCS south of Macon will enter eastern SC and southeastern NC later this evening, where a MDT risk is currently out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eh, you were mostly concerned about UH tracks and sim reflectivity and made multiple posts about it, those usually don't get you anywhere near as far as forecasting based on the actual conditions.
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No, those were a few examples. I posted a more extended post last night (773) on my thoughts. Lack of echo tops, clouds, drizzle and showers during peak heating, lack of UH and very little on sim reflectivity. We will see what happens today, but signs are indicating this won’t be nearly as bad as hyped/forecast by many which does a good bit of harm to public trust if/when these things don’t verify. I do think we will see some severe weather still, just not moderate level activity but more slight to enhanced type stuff that we typically see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models pretty much whiffed on the storms this morning in southern GA & FL. Seeing some hints that the northern portion of the QLCS south of Macon will enter eastern SC and southeastern NC later this evening, where a MDT risk is currently out.
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Do you know why it is that they whiffed ? What did the models not see ?
 
snowlover91 said:
No, those were a few examples. I posted a more extended post last night (773) on my thoughts. Lack of echo tops, clouds, drizzle and showers during peak heating, lack of UH and very little on sim reflectivity. We will see what happens today, but signs are indicating this won’t be nearly as bad as hyped/forecast by many which does a good bit of harm to public trust if/when these things don’t verify. I do think we will see some severe weather still, just not moderate level activity but more slight to enhanced type stuff that we typically see.
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The actual important elements of the forecast that you arguably should be paying attention to more were kinda shoved aside in favor of sim reflectivity & UH tracks based on what I read.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Do you know why it is that they whiffed ? What did the models not see ?
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It's just not easy to forecast moist convection. Earlier runs tried to break down the storms & struggled w/ cold pool maintenance. The storms & associated cold pools were apparently more robust than forecast by the models which is why some of them whiffed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The actual important elements of the forecast that you arguably should be paying attention to more were kinda shoved aside in favor of sim reflectivity & UH tracks based on what I read.
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I’ve seen tons of severe weather events bust in the time I’ve followed them, both to the upside and downside. I’ve found personally that soundings and the overall environment are one part of the puzzle and there are other clues models give us that we can use to help figure out the level of activity and how widespread an event may be.
 
snowlover91 said:
I’ve seen tons of severe weather events bust in the time I’ve followed them, both to the upside and downside. I’ve found personally that soundings and the overall environment are one part of the puzzle and there are other clues models give us that we can use to help figure out the level of activity and how widespread an event may be.
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It's more important to know what's actually causing the sim reflectivity & UH fields to behave the way they do rather than just reacting to their output.
 
Gonna need to see some filtered sun getting thru by lunchtime to really get me worried.....this loop shows the potential is there for some breaks/thin high clouds....it would not take much sun to push temps well into the 60-70's.....

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-East - Sector view: Southeast - Air Mass - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's more important to know what's actually causing the sim reflectivity & UH fields to behave the way they do rather than just reacting to their output.
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We will see what happens today, but all signs point to a few severe storms vs a mod risk type outbreak like the SPC had yesterday.
 
SD said:
View attachment 79563
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I'm trying to remember the last time it was 48 at 10:00 am then warm front blasted through and gave us severe storms less than 8 hrs later.

Now a special weather statement for dense fog, not saying we don't see severe but would be highly unusual for the atmosphere to recover from this
 
Webberweather53 said:
I generally agree w/ this area-wide anyways, I can see the MDT risk in SE NC verifying though based on recent trends w/ the storms over southern GA.
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Yeah if anywhere is going to see MDT risk verify it would be SE NC which should have the best combo of parameters and visible satellite indicates a few breaks in the clouds there as well.
 
Area-averaged sounding over the entire MDT risk area on the 12z 12km NAM valid at 21z. Pretty solid environment here w/ 750-1000 j/kg MUCAPE, 40 kts of deep layer shear (favoring supercells), & 30 knots of low-level shear, w/ long, cyclonically curved low-level hodographs, worthy of an enhanced-MDT risk for tornadoes, low-level lapse rates could use some work though. Critical angles aren't bad given the strong 0-1 SRH ~250 m2/s2 (which means you'll still have more than enough streamwise vorticity for storms to work from).

1616075384164.png
 
SD said:
Something like this would be problematic. That stuff in NW NC would likely be riding thevresidusl boundary.View attachment 79566
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Basically reinforcing the climo distribution for tors. The secondary max in climo tor density around Charlotte-Greensboro is actually from CAD events like this

NC tornado climatology 1950-2018.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The suddenly more active 12z suite is exactly why you don't call severe setups a bust before they happen.
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Idk tho everyone on here seemed to be hinting at it. I know you mentioned the wedge and all keeping it southeast .However, if I’m not mistaken this was all modeled . Looks like Fayetteville is breaking out now . By noon time I think everyone from Raleigh east and south will be breaking through it or already broken. It really doesn’t take much to destabilize the atmosphere , Wilmington area looking toasty rn.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The suddenly more active 12z suite is exactly why you don't call severe setups a bust before they happen.
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Just stepped out and am seeing pretty rapid cloud motions from south to north and we went from 52/52 to 59/57 quick with clouds. If we can get 2 hours of sun then we could destabalize just enough.
 
Lickwx said:
Idk tho everyone on here seemed to be hinting at it. I know you mentioned the wedge and all keeping it southeast .However, if I’m not mistaken this was all modeled . Looks like Fayetteville is breaking out now . By noon time I think everyone from Raleigh east and south will be breaking through it or already broken. It really doesn’t take much to destabilize the atmosphere , Wilmington area looking toasty rn.
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Not me lol. Sure there could be a lower threat than advertised but that doesn't necessarily equate to big bust like @snowlover91 was saying earlier. Prematurely jumping the gun and saying it's a bust when nothing has happened yet is definitely something you shouldn't do when it comes to severe weather, it's just too fickle.
 
Lickwx said:
Stronger CAD making this possible as you mentioned yesterday ?
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Yeah the shear has ticked upwards on the models which is the result of the stronger initial CAD. Sharp warm fronts & CAD boundaries aren't always the best for generating tornadoes because it limits the amount of time a storm can spend in an environment w/ high horizontal baroclinicty & SRH. Today's boundary looks a lot more gentle which is not a good thing in that regard
 
These soundings are back to looking scary, even around here, that stuff near ATL has my attention 2C64476C-CA17-4DF6-9324-B72670DCD258.png5FC538BC-9AB6-4AB5-B426-0F518E5CFC66.png
 
So when is it supposed to storm? Looking at the HRRR it doesn't storm here till the evening, is that correct? Or are we looking at more like 3-4 pm ?
 
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