Greg Fishel says right now he doesn't think there will be enough low lever shear for a major tornado outbreak.
A FEW COMMENTS ON THE THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
When I see the Storm Prediction Center put us in an enhanced risk of severe weather with the possibility of strong tornadoes 2 days out, I definitely take notice! But I must say, at first glance, I'm not sure I see this as being a huge threat, although I certainly don't want to rule it out, as I have immense respect for the folks in Norman, Oklahoma, who truly are the brightest minds in the world when it comes to severe weather forecasting.
Instability and Wind Shear are always the 2 biggies we look for when it comes to severe weather, and you don't always need both. Sometimes one is lacking, but the other more than makes up for it. In this particular case, there will be tremendous wind shear over a deep layer, but over the years, research has shown that the wind shear over the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere can be the difference between a severe weather event characterized by straight line wind damage with a few isolated tornadoes, and an event that has more tornadoes with some of them strong. At this point, that low level shear seems to be lacking on Thursday, which would lead me to believe that while severe weather is certainly possible if not likely, the chance of a major tornado outbreak, at least for now, seems to be on the low side. Now, as you know it's been a chilly day, and we are clearly in the middle of a cold air damming event. This cold air is expected to retreat and get out of here Thursday. If for some reason, the cold air is more belligerent, and we have a front nearby separating the retreating cold air from the advancing warm air, then the low level wind shear would be much more significant, and that could well be a game changer.
Fortunately, we still have some time to watch this. So at this point, don't run to the basement in a state of panic. It's wait and see time, and by tomorrow night/Thursday morning, we should have a much better idea as to what to expect during the day Thursday. Stay warm!