March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[Psalm 148:8]

Looks like the timing of cell initiation on the first round is key. If it is earlier in the day when low level helicity is on the lower side, the main threat by far will be hail. However if it is later, those cells in east AL/GA could be prolific tornado producers.

Dude.. my neighborhood... give me some city locations or a hrrr map.. I’m in charge of kids tomorrow at school... we didn’t cancel in Troup co GA

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woah those are some huge low level Hodographs on the HRRR

 

[Avalanche]

Lol this would be more then enough to get me out there and chaseView attachment 79198View attachment 79199

You can come to my place in Pittsboro. Fridge is full of beer. Take pics from chasing down east.

 

[Avalanche]

If I do chase I’m eyeing eastern Harnett county and 4 oaks area of Joco. 4 oaks is where Webber’s friend 1300 lives .

4 oaks, smithfield, selma. Johnston county seems to get the brunt of severe weather.

 

[Avalanche]

Here is what WRAL's model looks like for Thrusday at 5:00 pm.

View attachment 79216

Looks more squallish and broken. Renegades out ahead of it? Those worry me.

 

[tempo47]

Where exactly are cells supposed to be earlier in the day on wed in AL/GA? i havent really heard anything about that until you just spoke of it, every local met ive watched hasnt mentioned anything but rain showers until late wed night into the early am thursday when the main stuff rolls in

 

[Myfrotho704_]

area averaged sounding across NC on the HRRR, plenty of low level shear with classic bullet hodograph shapes as cameron nixon calls them

 

[Brick Tamland]

area averaged sounding across NC on the HRRR, plenty of low level shear with classic bullet hodograph shapes as cameron nixon calls them View attachment 79223

Fishel might have to change his tune about not having enough low level shear.

 

[SD]

That stuff that gets going in the early to mid afternoon on the NAMs tomorrow in eastern MS west Al goodness. May end up with 1 or 2 dominant cells rolling around at that time

 

[Arcc]

Dude.. my neighborhood... give me some city locations or a hrrr map.. I’m in charge of kids tomorrow at school... we didn’t cancel in Troup co GA

Unfortunately our area. The WRFs and HRRR has the best combination of shear/cape/helicity along with cell initiation across the east central AL/west central GA area in the first round.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh no

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The 3km soundings are scary lol

 

[Brick Tamland]

Oh no View attachment 79224

Crap, that doesn't look good.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol area averaged soundings from the 3km
NC

SC

 

[Avalanche]

Can we please shift this SE!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oof

 

[SD]

Oof View attachment 79227View attachment 79228View attachment 79229

Yikes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 79230

Yikes

Lol holy getting close to 60kts 0-3km
Looks like the CAMs basically look like the HRRR, or the NAM, no in between, strong QLCS/quicker front = wind threat
Slower front/QLCS that break up = late day supercell threat with all hazards

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wonder if they stay enhanced or go moderate or wait till tomorrow aft

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wonder if they stay enhanced or go moderate or wait till tomorrow aft View attachment 79234View attachment 79233View attachment 79232

I don’t think it’s widespread enough to warrant issuing a moderate ... I can see an enhanced with an expanded SIG SEV dashed area .. with a mention of possible upgrading of future runs hold same trends