Yeah and some CAMs just have a QLCS and don’t look as scary as NAMs
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Thursday looking interesting here. CJ has us in the high risk category. Looking forward to hearing some rumbles.
Lol bassfield
Not too shabby for it being night time.
(my backyard)
(my backyard)
The more I look at the more I waffle. I’m going to bed....
Is it me or is the hrrr gradually looking more ominous, keeps on consistently showing rotating storms in central AL tomorrow afternoon
This right here. Base 0-1km SRH is only around 150-200 during the first wave(discrete supercells). While I know these numbers are good enough for a tornado threat, I’ve had my tail burned way too many times expecting something big with numbers like this.
Note: I’m referring to the first wave because it looks like it may be a greater threat to my area, not the second.
Attachments
Jrips2710
Member
High risk issued. Waiting on the map
Jrips2710
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Wow didn’t think there was enough model support to warrant that yet but they know a lot more than me at the SPC.
RebelBearLandshark
Member
Oxford is pretty much split right along the high risk zone
STRONG WORDING FROM SPC
Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
into northwest AL.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/17/2021
Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
into northwest AL.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/17/2021
Jrips2710
Member
day 2
Snowflowxxl
Member
UMMM MODERATE upgrade day 2
Okay so we know SPC is not playing around this year .. noted