March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[Arcc]

Although the tornado threat this afternoon is dependent on low level helicity, that hail threat is dadgum legit. Latest HRRR has sbcape in excess of 3000, LIs -8 to -9, LRs over 7, over 200 3km cape and a strong EML across central AL. Hide yo cars.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Although the tornado threat this afternoon is dependent on low level helicity, that hail threat is dadgum legit. Latest HRRR has sbcape in excess of 3000, LIs -8 to -9, LRs over 7, over 200 3km cape and a strong EML across central AL. Hide yo cars.

Might be some softballs in the strongest updrafts today

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow that’s bad

 

[snowlover91]

Raleigh radar should be back up this afternoon per their status message. They’re replacing a generator supposedly hence the reason it is down right now.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow that’s bad View attachment 79260View attachment 79258View attachment 79259View attachment 79261View attachment 79257

And then you have the long range HRRR giving NC absolutely nothing but a warm rain

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And then you have the long range HRRR giving NC absolutely nothing but a warm rain

Hrrr night look nasty again at 12z given its basically the same thing as the RAP, RAP wasn’t this bad 03z, really stepped things up

 

[jackendrickwx]

Based off what the HRRR/3k are showing I wouldn't be all that surprised to see some eastern expansion of the high risk. Most of the supercell development seems to be in AL on those two, but obviously can happen anywhere with this type of fuel

 

[Stump]

Raleigh radar should be back up this afternoon per their status message. They’re replacing a generator supposedly hence the reason it is down right now.

Hope they do, it’s the only good coverage for what looks like will be a hard hit area tomorrow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Clear trend to the NAM

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Was the last high risk in NC in 2011 ? Doubt they go that far but was just wondering

 

[Zander98al]

This makes me feel uneasy. Look at those healthy kidney beans...

 

[HSVweather]

no tornado warning on this in MS at this time. There was one earlier.

 

[Downeastnc]

Was the last high risk in NC in 2011 ? Doubt they go that far but was just wondering

I only remember 2 and that was Mar 1984 and Apr 2011, though I think there was one other one sometime in the 80's maybe.....but those other two were well warranted.

 

[znel52]

I feel like there was one for April 24, 2014 but I could be mistaken. That day produced an EF3 in Washington NC. Feels like there has been others but not sure.

 

[SD]

 

[Zander98al]

Wouldn't surprise me if this cell over MS produces a tornado or is producing one now. It's kindve in no man's land with radar but ?.

 

[HSVweather]

Wouldn't surprise me if this cell over MS produces a tornado or is producing one now. It's kindve in no man's land with radar but ?. View attachment 79268View attachment 79269

I bet it’s producing some large hail

 

[Brick Tamland]

Woke up to see the SPC has me under a level 4 threat for severe weather tomorrow. I was hoping things would settle down, but they just seem to be getting worse.

 

[Zander98al]

Also look at the open area with no storms right now ??. That's some bad juju.

 

[Zander98al]

Tornado warning near naples texas