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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Avalanche said:
What time do you give for that squall line working through RDU area?
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Earliest it would probably arrive is ~6pm or so. Basically around sunset for the Triangle area, and that's typically when the tornado threat is the highest as the low-level jet starts to intensify and storms have had the most time to mature
 
It's so bizarre how these wedges work. GSP shot up the most in temp in less than 2 hours after being stuck in the low 50's. CLT wasn't as quick to warm up, but we managed to and things are clearing out. And the NW Triangle is still wedged in. These wedge severe weather setups are no joke in the Upstate and Southern Piedmont.
 
Mid and upper 60s starting by to work there way in to my area now. Sun is about to pop out , can really see the shine through in the clouds.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Can tell right off the bat that supercells today will probably be more mini/low topped in nature (which models struggle to show UH wise), may be some deeper updrafts later tho as instability increases
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Yep lol exactly what I talked about yesterday wrt interpreting UH tracks & sim reflectivity from the CAMs. These fields on the models w/ 3km resolution are just easily influenced by storm size as they are the actual conditions and the lack of them on a model doesn't necessarily equate to a bust or crappy environment. You can just have a ton of smaller supercells that are harder for the models to resolve and as these cells grow upscale, the model errors may become exceptionally large.
 
Suns out bois I feel it on my cheeks . Thinking about going to Wilson this evening and getting Parker’s and chasing . Ain’t but 20 minutes away.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep lol exactly what I talked about yesterday wrt interpreting UH tracks & sim reflectivity from the CAMs. These fields on the models w/ 3km resolution are just easily influenced by storm size as they are the actual conditions and the lack of them on a model doesn't necessarily equate to a bust or crappy environment. You can just have a ton of smaller supercells that are harder for the models to resolve and as these cells grow upscale, the model errors may become exceptionally large.
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I was just about to ask that since a large number of the mitigating factors IE longer wedging, lack of instability seem to now be more clear and primed then what's to stop these cells from growing and becoming larger supes as they encounter the better environment of the Midlands and central and eastern NC? What mitigating factors are left to get in the way
 
Shaggy said:
I was just about to ask that since a large number of the mitigating factors IE longer wedging, lack of instability seem to now be more clear and primed then what's to stop these cells from growing and becoming larger supes as they encounter the better environment of the Midlands and central and eastern NC? What mitigating factors are left to get in the way
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Let’s chase brother. Wayne county let’s do it
 
Drscottsmith said:
Sleet City -

Don't you think the cells that will affect us directly are in the Hartwell, GA area right now (based on your last radar post)? So probably 1-2 hours away? Lots of time for continued heating.
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I’m not sure. It’s tough to tell, I wanna say the big one in Greenville will cut just north, so somewhere in between that and hartwell will probably impact here

also, this just popped ahead of the line
BB081C33-08F2-4BC4-987B-067E88FB1B03.jpg
 
When would you say this line is expected to reach the East Charlotte area? If we get another 1-3 hours of this sun things are not going to be pretty. Considering these cells are looking pretty impressive in areas where SB Cape was lacking earlier kind of worries me considering the current conditions.
 
The HRRR is still having major issues trying to resolve this line entering SC, the last few runs have tried to bring it back but are initializing them too weak. These southern storms at the tail end of the line are probably headed in the general direction of central NC and are the ones worth watching as we get closer to sunset.
 
Sleet City USA said:
I’m not sure. It’s tough to tell, I wanna say the big one in Greenville will cut just north, so somewhere in between that and hartwell will probably impact here

also, this just popped ahead of the line
View attachment 79645
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I just drove through the middle of that cell it was blinding
 
This tail end charlie at the southern end of the line near the SC/GA border is probably the storm to watch over the coming hours for folks in the midlands, pee dee region, & perhaps central NC. It arguably has by the best environment ahead of it & is fixing to enter a region of considerably higher CAPE further east

Screen Shot 2021-03-18 at 2.23.14 PM.png
 
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