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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

It wouldn't surprise me to see that enhanced risk go back a west a bit given the newest data. Probably an expansion of the mod risk as well.
 
Sounds like Greg Fishel thinks the hype might have been too much in regards to this being a big severe outbreak around here.

THESE SITUATIONS TROUBLE ME

As I mentioned earlier this week, the folks at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, possess some of the greatest minds in the world when it comes to severe weather forecasting. What troubles me is when I have a different take on things, and out of respect for them ask myself the following "What am I missing?". The most eye catching issue for me is the weakness of the low level flow over central North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. We'll start off with a rather intense low pressure area in southeast Missouri in the morning. It will weaken as a new area of low pressure forms east of the Appalachian mountains. This is hard to explain without graphics, but in effect the new area of low pressure will weaken the pressure gradient over the piedmont, thus reducing the low level flow of moisture into the piedmont, while shifting the strongest low level wind flow toward the coastal plain and the coast. That would leave the Triangle, and points north and west with a much lesser chance for a tornado outbreak, and shift that threat toward the I-95 corridor and points east. So at this point, I'd be more concerned if I lived in Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Wilson, Rocky Mount, and Roanoke Rapids, than I would be in Raleigh, Sanford, Durham, Henderson and Roxboro. I see no comparison between this event and the April 16, 2011 tornado outbreak. So, we're moving out of the speculation period and transitioning into the monitoring period. I'll provide frequent updates throughout the day. Nobody should let their guard down. Always better to be safe than sorry. I'm simply giving you my honest opinion as to who is at greatest risk. Stay tuned!
 
deltadog03 said:
Who was it that said don’t ever bet against the wedge. Hahaha
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Me that was me ... it’s always been me .. CAD WILL ALWAYS WIN .. but I think central NC is very much in the game all models have significant parameters going up a lot from central NC to the coast.. anywhere there still has the potential for bad storms .. the warm sector is rushing in and models have it bursting through this dead CAD ...
 
It is 55 degrees with thick fog here. I see the storms just to my west but I don't know about any severe here. It's warm in Laurens so I thinks anderson to laurens to Union may have to worry about storms firing up.
 
It’s so funny I woke up checked the models saw that what I was saying yesterday looks to be happening (line of storms is way faster than forecasted and so models showed that crapvection yesterday for us but I was almost certain that the speed of those storms would allow us to break out today in the warm sector and warm up quick. All the models have been forecasting this surge of warm sector into central NC and eastern Carolinas even since yesterday) and now that crapvection is leaving we have the opportunity to get fresh sun to fuel this event to from Raleigh Charlotte and east ... to my surprise I got on here and everyone was saying how much of a RIP this was and how the wedge always wins and all this jumbo Mumbo .. well temps are rising fast and that warm sector is busting through as it’s always been modeled .. only areas that “busted” out of this event are north west areas like Greensboro and Winston Salem ... everywhere else has always been game on
 
Fog is now gone yet still very overcast with a temperature of 59, it was 57 about 10 minutes ago. I have a feeling in an hour or two the sun may start peaking through.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
So far it’s looking like upstate schools canceled school for drizzle
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You know it’s deeper than that.. they are just being as safe as possible .. if a true moderate risk was warranted then having people off the road and such is a good idea to keep everyone safe .. they acted as they should
 
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