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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Still I think if we see trends of quicker destabilization then we could easily go back to moderate .. there’s that potential the HRRR always looks different 6 hours later in severe events
 
Old decaying line in front with the new line developing behind it .. not much crapvection looks like everything getting dealt with accordingly .. I’m seeing on almost all recent short range guidance quite the surge in temperatures and Dewpoint’s .. we will be solidly in the warm sector I believeDD2ADF28-4853-4B17-8BBC-E62A2CFC1631.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Some good wedging going on this morning. For that, we can be thankful.
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You live at a pretty elevated spot though so you were already protected and fine in the first place ! Can’t imagine much risk ever happening at over 3000 feet. Unless you talking about lower areas in which well we were supposed to be wedged in this morning . Winds are out the south however so matter of time before it breaks .
 
snowlover91 said:
Maybe models just aren’t picking up on the idea of small supercells tomorrow or handling things well... but this is not what I expect for a mod outbreak (in NC) as currently forecast. 19z tomorrow we have light rain moving in.

View attachment 79516

Echo tops are also quite shallow, just very little deep convection in NC.
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It’s been my experience with severe weather threats that when models show some red flags like this, a potential bust is in the cards. I’m not saying people shouldn’t take this seriously, I get that parameters and soundings indicate the potential for an outbreak and models could be completely missing it here. But the signs point to clouds, stabilizing light precip during peak heating, and shallow convection. What I’m seeing on the 3km NAM and HRRR runs has consistently indicated this as well across NC in contrast to the widespread outbreak being forecast. Something to watch as things unfold tomorrow morning.
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This looks on track for a good call. We'll see if we get any breaks in the clouds, but this is looking like your run of the mill severe weather event for central NC, at least at this point.
 
JHS said:
Yeah just as I expected. The cold air almost always wins out around here. It never moves out like the models show.
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Seems wilmington is perhaps warming now with 59/57 versus jackonsville just up the road being 53/53. We will see what happens when the sun comes up and how quickly we can erode the wedge.
 
Events like this where we downgrade severe threats leading into the event is what hurts local mets & seriously screws w/ communication esp when the real one actually shows up. Looks like a non-event for the most part in the central-western piedmont, coastal sections of NC/SC and the coastal plain should still keep an eye on it but the more stout cloud deck we're seeing this morning is gonna hurt this one. That's just not something you can easily forecast until it's basically happening.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Events like this where we downgrade severe threats leading into the event is what hurts local mets & seriously screws w/ communication esp when the real one actually shows up. Looks like a non-event for the most part in the central-western piedmont, coastal sections of NC/SC and the coastal plain should still keep an eye on it but the more stout cloud deck we're seeing this morning is gonna hurt this one. That's just not something you can easily forecast until it's basically happening.
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But we have seen it time and time again. People that aren't even mets were predicting this would happen. It is what has been happening 9 out of 10 times here the last decade whenever we have a supposedly big threat. It feels like the models are just fooling us time and time again and don't know how to handle things in our current climate. Same thing happens all the time with winter storm threats, too.
 
MBY
Temp 59F
Cloudy/Broken Clouds
Pressure 29.93 in
Visibility 7 miles

Dew Point 59 F
Humidity 99 %
Winds ENE @8
 
Brick Tamland said:
A lot of folks were saying it on here yesterday. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
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Yeah the red flags were there but so were the dynamics for a major outbreak. When I walked outside this morning to drizzle and 52 i knew it was a done deal. May be some isolated severe but it's clear on the modeling the storms never get going.
 
I'm interested to see what the 12z runs have. It's probably a little early to pull the plug completely
 
Brick Tamland said:
But we have seen it time and time again. People that aren't even mets were predicting this would happen. It is what has been happening 9 out of 10 times here the last decade whenever we have a supposedly big threat. It feels like the models are just fooling us time and time again and don't know how to handle things in our current climate. Same thing happens all the time with winter storm threats, too.
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Nah dude. Bad take here. So you think Mets should have underplayed the threat until today if it happened to be a bad outbreak, raise the alarm on the 6am news? Mets make decisions off guidance. Non Mets do too. But I wouldn’t be so quick to say it was bound to happen...we cash in on severe pretty well here in NC. It’s almost like you forget we do decent with tors here...
 
Brick Tamland said:
But we have seen it time and time again. People that aren't even mets were predicting this would happen. It is what has been happening 9 out of 10 times here the last decade whenever we have a supposedly big threat. It feels like the models are just fooling us time and time again and don't know how to handle things in our current climate. Same thing happens all the time with winter storm threats, too.
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High res models were pretty clear for NC yesterday that this wouldn’t be much of a threat, at least the 3km NAM and HRRR. They showed clouds, drizzle, cooler temps with a last minute warm surge, very little activity on the SIM Reflectivity and echo top product, etc. IMO this was well modeled by the 3km NAM and HRRR yesterday which were not showing much at all. There’s a lot more to severe weather outbreaks than just a rough sounding, high shear or decent cape.
 
Rain Cold said:
This looks on track for a good call. We'll see if we get any breaks in the clouds, but this is looking like your run of the mill severe weather event for central NC, at least at this point.
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When I looked at models yesterday and they showed thick clouds with drizzle and light showers most of the day... that was a huge red flag. The UH tracks being basically nonexistent and 3km nam and hrrr showing very little convective activity... just not the setup for a widespread outbreak and all the warning signs of that were there yesterday IMO. We will see what happens today but I don’t see much in the way of thunderstorm activity developing.
 
SD said:
I'm interested to see what the 12z runs have. It's probably a little early to pull the plug completely
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Yeah there is a area of thin broken clouds behind this little batch of rain that could give some filtered sun and that would crush the wedge.....
 
Jon said:
Nah dude. Bad take here. So you think Mets should have underplayed the threat until today if it happened to be a bad outbreak, raise the alarm on the 6am news? Mets make decisions off guidance. Non Mets do too. But I wouldn’t be so quick to say it was bound to happen...we cash in on severe pretty well here in NC. It’s almost like you forget we do decent with tors here...
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Mets have to do what they have to do with the info they have. But experience tells us that 9 out of 10 times the last decade the wedge will hold on longer, there will be clouds and showers around in the morning to limit instability and reduce the severe threat. The mets are put in a hard spot, but the public is still going to think they cried wolf and might not pay attention the next time. Just the way it is.
 
snowlover91 said:
High res models were pretty clear for NC yesterday that this wouldn’t be much of a threat, at least the 3km NAM and HRRR. They showed clouds, drizzle, cooler temps with a last minute warm surge, very little activity on the SIM Reflectivity and echo top product, etc. IMO this was well modeled by the 3km NAM and HRRR yesterday which were not showing much at all. There’s a lot more to severe weather outbreaks than just a rough sounding, high shear or decent cape.
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There's a lot more to severe weather than looking at UH tracks and sim reflectivity ;)
 
I wouldn't base a forecast more off sim reflectivity & UH tracks than actual soundings and shear/CAPE, great case in point on this morning's HRRR:

Completely missed the boat on this morning's storms in GA & FL panhandle, but the soundings were conducive to storms. An experienced forecaster would have leaned more on the latter than the former


hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_fh1_trend (1).gif
 
snowlover91 said:
Which is why I said the thick clouds, drizzle, cooler air being slow to move out, etc were other indications of a bust;)
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Eh, you were mostly concerned about UH tracks and sim reflectivity and made multiple posts about it, those usually don't get you anywhere near as far as forecasting based on the actual conditions.
 
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