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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

EHI of 5 around the gulf coast. For day 4 severe threat. Your probably going to have some pretty high paramters on the gulf with this event.
 
That threat area keeps inching north for Friday. Parameters also looking more bullish. 12z model suite coming out now.
 
Pushing near 3000j of SB cape in central Alabama with good position of a surface low to the northwest ????????
 
Surface to 3km lapse rates are incredibly steep in the afternoon Friday. A staggering 8 degrees
 
BufordWX said:
There is a hatched area for very large hail in Florida today centered on Orlando. Cant recall seeing that too often.View attachment 115700
Click to expand...

There was small hail reported in this area ~25 minutes ago:

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG TELFAIR ROAD
IN SAVANNAH, GA.

Also, larger hail reported one county south of here ~45 minutes ago:

PICTURE OF HAIL ON SOCIAL MEDIA. HAIL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
 
That Friday event will be dependent on what that lead wave does. It could either push on through fast and lead to more cloud breaks in it's wake and more destabilizing. Or come through mid morning and make the threat minimal and reliant on the qcls for severe weather. either way you don't want the lead wave to push through quick and get out of Alabama and leave the rest of the afternoon to destabilize under the baking sun. I'd say this is a conditionally significant event.

Nws of bham says they don't believe the airmass will recover enough, so that'll put a big damper on a afternoon wave.
 
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3km nam has supercells intiating over central Alabama during the afternoon with a environment of 2000+ cape. Waiting to see WRF and HRRR get into that range and see it's opionon on redevelopmentnam3km_ir_seus_60.png
 
18z 3km nam runs comes soon. Along with 18z HRRR long range run. Wanna see if it continues with the redevelopment in the afternoon and the recovered airmass
 
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