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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

Good grief the at the bullish 2nd wave convection on the 00z hrrr. Doesn't show some of the cells going supercellular with the 2nd wave, but we will see. The environment is there it looks like.
 
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Atomsphere looks to recover Friday afternoon but sparse development is now being forecasted. Wouldn't trust it this far out though, last event changed considerably 24 hours out. Albeit the main lifting mechanism that event was peak heating lol.
 
Having a hard time believing supercells don't initiate near western Alabama around peak heating Friday. Something just seems off. Hopefully not a repeat of the no lift system that started spitting out multi cluster and supercells and didn't show it on forecast till about 5 hours out. Either wait atmosphere will be ripe Friday afternoon. Wondering if models are having trouble with the dynamics of the atmosphere at play? Don't know just seems fishy at the lack of convection, cams are clearly showing a very well rebounded atmosphere and multiple lifting mechanisms at the same time. Just my thoughts ?. The cams all show a few mini supercells around the central Alabama region but I'd push that intitaion a bit to the west off of hunch
 
Zander98al said:
Having a hard time believing supercells don't initiate near western Alabama around peak heating Friday. Something just seems off. Hopefully not a repeat of the no lift system that started spitting out multi cluster and supercells and didn't show it on forecast till about 5 hours out. Either wait atmosphere will be ripe Friday afternoon. Wondering if models are having trouble with the dynamics of the atmosphere at play? Don't know just seems fishy at the lack of convection, cams are clearly showing a very well rebounded atmosphere and multiple lifting mechanisms at the same time. Just my thoughts ?. The cams all show a few mini supercells around the central Alabama region but I'd push that intitaion a bit to the west off of hunch
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I think the key is how well the atmosphere can rebound from the morning storms. Especially in north Alabama, it will be harder to recover this far north but still plausible as you stated with the CAMs showing it
 
HSVweather said:
I think the key is how well the atmosphere can rebound from the morning storms. Especially in north Alabama, it will be harder to recover this far north but still plausible as you stated with the CAMs showing it
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Think it's a lot more likely than we are putting stock into, gotta realize the sun will be completely out by mid morning after that qcls moves through. You could probably reach 3000+ sbcape in west Alabama
 
Wow that south Alabama section even with the first wave is looking nasty. STP over 6. And long updraft swaths. HRRRSE_con_stp_028.pngScreenshot_20220317-083623.pngScreenshot_20220317-083529.png
 
Check out those supercells by Selma at 9 o'clock in the morning. That's a pretty ripe area.
 
You may have a pretty good tornado event in south Alabama and then the northern extent will be dependent on that second wave. Hunch tells me it'll initiate a bit more to the west. Hrrr is already keying in rotating updrafts with supercells in the eastern half of the state. A enchanced risk in that south Alabama area will probably issued before go time.
 
Disregard poor surface lapse rates and small low level instability and you have a pretty stout reading here. This is took a little southwest of Clanton.hrrr_2022031712_027_31.91--87.89 (1).png
 
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