gawxnative
Member
Just a "gut feeling" but thinking the cells on the northern edge of that round may very well be the ones to watch
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Here's a thought. Just looking back. It seems each severe season we get a handful of events like this that are "conditional" they don't seem to verify very often for some reason. It's usually a situation where either storms don't fire, or fire and can't really get going, or you end up with these monstrous looking supercells on radar, but have LCL's that are way to high that the chances of getting a tornado are slim. Of course tomorrow could be the one and if we end of seeing the right environment in place you certainly can't discount it.
That is pretty ominous is things can pop. Can the better shear and instability overlap enough and storms fire just at the right time.
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Zander98al
Guest
For the 1st round of storms. I agree
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Zander98al
Guest
That west-central Alabama tommorow afternoon?
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Zander98al
Guest
Im afraid things will be similar to the no lift event where it took getting in range of bout 5-10 hours before it started actually showing convection intiating. That west Alabama area looks to be my thinking of wear storms will pop around the afternoon. As we get into the 18 hour range tonight I believe the HRRR will start to key in on the potential convection that intiatiates in the state.
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Zander98al
Guest
FV3 hi res shows the redevelopment near the state line of Alabama and Mississippi with supercells popping, although the FV3 is known for being a supercell printer lol.
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Zander98al
Guest
Gut feeling tells me things will be rough tommorow in central/north Alabama tommorow. Don't like the look of the discreet convection forming tommorow afternoon.
Looks like a confluence band will set up near the I20 corridor as another convection initiater on top of peak heating and the cold front.
Looks like a confluence band will set up near the I20 corridor as another convection initiater on top of peak heating and the cold front.
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The wind fields on last nights Euro are just plain nasty. It fired a little convection north of BHM.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Gotta watch for that crapvection on the coast robbing moisture. That's a healthy little MCS.
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Zander98al
Guest
I actually think it'll be the least of our worries. The closer we've gotten the more it's further east and isn't curving in the western gulf. Some models even show the southern end disapating. What you may get is some significant storms in south Alabama if it breaks up more and disapates to storm clusters and cells.
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Zander98al
Guest
WRF looks bad for south Alabama in the 1st event. Almost completely becoming a broken line/ discreet cells
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Zander98al
Guest
Should get a updated spc risk area soon, I'd imagine a enhanced will be added
Thats some pretty impressive stuff but not really sure if we have enough forcing and if the lower level warm layer is to much, any storm that would form in this environment would pose a all hazard threat, including very large hail with those sort of mid level lapse rates 
I noticed the 12z NAM had soundings with 0-3km cape around 280 and 700mb wetbulbing around -5C. Tornado threat is conditional, but if anything pops I wouldn’t be surprised to see golf to baseball sized hail.
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Zander98al
Guest
Fox 6 and nws of bham says they expect a few rouge storms to develop in the afternoon ?.
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Zander98al
Guest
Thought they would add a enchaned for south Alabama. Although I thought it would be a smidge more north
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
So nws says they expect a few long track strong tornadoes especially in south Alabama ?
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Zander98al
Guest
I feel for the weather people tommorow. Complicated forecast tommorow.
This look at H5 is about a classic as you get for supercells in the southeast.
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Zander98al
Guest
17 hrrr speeds up the morning line by a couple hours. 18z is about to roll out.
Gonna be honest, if the Euro is correct, the Enhanced area needs to be brought up to at least Montgomery for the morning round.
Actually has a strong cell ride the warm front from Montgomery to Columbus that may cause serious problems.
Actually has a strong cell ride the warm front from Montgomery to Columbus that may cause serious problems.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I had a feeling we were headed for big changes with the outlooks and big changes we got. I think its fair to say there may be more changes. Tough forecast though.
I’d definitely be concerned with a cell riding the cool side of the warm front. Seen it happen before.
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Zander98al
Guest
I thought it was low to begin with when it was shown. Bham nws risk outline package may expand further up, but the nws spc should follow suite by the 00z outlook
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Didn't even think to see if there was a thread about severe yesterday when I got excited about the hail.
There were a lot of storms yesterday in the evening/night here, one of the storms produced hail, and here is a picture:
It was brief, then for a while, there was a blinding rainstorm.
There were a lot of storms yesterday in the evening/night here, one of the storms produced hail, and here is a picture:
It was brief, then for a while, there was a blinding rainstorm.
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Zander98al
Guest
Wow. Pockets of STP maxed out in north Alabama tommorow afternoon. With HRRR spitting out convective cells in northeastern quarter of Alabama.
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Zander98al
Guest
Pockets of maxed out STP about 50-100 miles inland from the gulf shore for tommorow morning as well. Good grief. Either it will be a somewhat busy day tomorrow or a downright ugly one.
HSVweather
Member
Huntsville afternoon AFD on the threat tomorrow
DadOfJax
Member
South AL looks like a legit risk. Very skeptical about the recovery of the atmosphere across the northern 2/3's of the state for the afternoon. I see it being a more linear cold front passage deal, with maybe some hail and an embedded rotation or two.
Both 3km and 12km NAMs showing scattered Supercells across north and central AL. While the tornado risk is there; both soundings and analogs are screaming a huge hail threat with these storms.
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Zander98al
Guest
Looking like a broken line of supercells with tornadoes in south Alabama tommorow morning., Could a moderate be added for a small corridor tonight?
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Zander98al
Guest
Could definetly see a PDS issued for that south Alabama south Mississippi region. with each new HRRR run it looks more omnious. STP close to maxed out for portions of south Alabama and Mississippi
Don’t forget though, those numbers can be really skewed by convection. Try to find a convection free zone to see the true amount.
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Zander98al
Guest
You gotta be kidding me HRRR. 
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Zander98al
Guest
The convection free areas are still around 7+ would like to check the EHI. easier to discern environment with that parameter but my favorite forecast website doesn't have ehi on the HRRR lol
Looks like 0-1km EHI is 2-3 across lower MS/AL at the end of the 20z HRRR.