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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

Hey @SD can you highlight this risk timeframe like the march 21-24 event. as it looks like it'll be a bit more robust than previously thought.
 
So far HRRR long range has the qcls midway through Alabama by 6 o'clock in the morning friday. A bit slower than 12z 3km nam. Has decent convection near the gulf coast counties.
 
Now it's flooding ? and tiny bits of hail just a second ago.
 
Water rescues ongoing at uab campus st Vincent's and 5 point south.
 
RollTide18 said:
@Zander98al what do you think of the earlier round for S Alabama?
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Haven't really looked at it too much, been focusing on the potential redevelopment later, I think the first wave will just be damaging winds and a little bit of hail, with possibly a spin up or two, with your stronger storms in the QCLS. Closer to the gulf during the earlier round you may see a better chance at spin ups as it looks like greater instability is confined to just inland (mobile/ Baldwin county). Everything in the 1st wave will probably be semi elevated the further north in Alabama you get.
 
I'll tell you one thing long range HRRR is quick on that recovery with the atmosphere it may be more aggressive with supercells in the 00z runs. Big run coming up on the HRRR.
 
Hrrr has significant clearing in a already highly favored environment by 12pm. With a cold front pressing into west MS. Significant destabilizion will be possible. With cold front and peak heating along with divergence in the upper levels intiating that convection. Screenshot_20220316-193220-369.png
 
Pretty high low level instability, should be 200+ with low level lapse rates at around 7.5-8.
 
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