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Zander98al
Guest
So nws says they expect a few long track strong tornadoes especially in south Alabama ?
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Zander98al
Guest
I feel for the weather people tommorow. Complicated forecast tommorow.
This look at H5 is about a classic as you get for supercells in the southeast.
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Zander98al
Guest
17 hrrr speeds up the morning line by a couple hours. 18z is about to roll out.
Gonna be honest, if the Euro is correct, the Enhanced area needs to be brought up to at least Montgomery for the morning round.
Actually has a strong cell ride the warm front from Montgomery to Columbus that may cause serious problems.
Actually has a strong cell ride the warm front from Montgomery to Columbus that may cause serious problems.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I had a feeling we were headed for big changes with the outlooks and big changes we got. I think its fair to say there may be more changes. Tough forecast though.
I’d definitely be concerned with a cell riding the cool side of the warm front. Seen it happen before.
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Zander98al
Guest
I thought it was low to begin with when it was shown. Bham nws risk outline package may expand further up, but the nws spc should follow suite by the 00z outlook
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Didn't even think to see if there was a thread about severe yesterday when I got excited about the hail.
There were a lot of storms yesterday in the evening/night here, one of the storms produced hail, and here is a picture:
It was brief, then for a while, there was a blinding rainstorm.
There were a lot of storms yesterday in the evening/night here, one of the storms produced hail, and here is a picture:
It was brief, then for a while, there was a blinding rainstorm.
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Zander98al
Guest
Wow. Pockets of STP maxed out in north Alabama tommorow afternoon. With HRRR spitting out convective cells in northeastern quarter of Alabama.
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Zander98al
Guest
Pockets of maxed out STP about 50-100 miles inland from the gulf shore for tommorow morning as well. Good grief. Either it will be a somewhat busy day tomorrow or a downright ugly one.
HSVweather
Member
Huntsville afternoon AFD on the threat tomorrow
DadOfJax
Member
South AL looks like a legit risk. Very skeptical about the recovery of the atmosphere across the northern 2/3's of the state for the afternoon. I see it being a more linear cold front passage deal, with maybe some hail and an embedded rotation or two.
Both 3km and 12km NAMs showing scattered Supercells across north and central AL. While the tornado risk is there; both soundings and analogs are screaming a huge hail threat with these storms.
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Zander98al
Guest
Looking like a broken line of supercells with tornadoes in south Alabama tommorow morning., Could a moderate be added for a small corridor tonight?
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Zander98al
Guest
Could definetly see a PDS issued for that south Alabama south Mississippi region. with each new HRRR run it looks more omnious. STP close to maxed out for portions of south Alabama and Mississippi
Don’t forget though, those numbers can be really skewed by convection. Try to find a convection free zone to see the true amount.
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Zander98al
Guest
You gotta be kidding me HRRR. 
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Zander98al
Guest
The convection free areas are still around 7+ would like to check the EHI. easier to discern environment with that parameter but my favorite forecast website doesn't have ehi on the HRRR lol
Looks like 0-1km EHI is 2-3 across lower MS/AL at the end of the 20z HRRR.