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Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

Good grief from Bibb county down to mobile . All significant rotations. HRRRSE_con_uphly_018.pngHRRRSE_con_uphly_017.png
 
Could see a moderate risk being put out here, but I imagine they will stick with enchaned and bring it more north for the morning threat.Screenshot_20220317-180058-446.png
 
Somebody was
HSVweather said:
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Those would be some bad storms. I've been debating wether I want to get up very early to pay attention to the morning threat and afternoon threat or get up normal time and pay attention more to the afternoon threat ?
 
Low level instability in south Alabama is now reaching 200+ in spots for the morning system.
 
Instability looks like it's being underdone... And the HRRR is catching up. 72 dewpoint about 30 miles inland.
 
Already at 2000+ SB cape at 11 o'clock in west Alabama. Oof. With sun coming out. Based on the newest hrr runn
 
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Some of these paramters are just stupid, around 250 low level instability, surface lapse rates at 8+. Sbcape at about 2500+....
 
Time for me to go to bed, good luck night owls, you'll probably have a significant tornado or two in Louisiana into south MS later tonight into very early tommorow morning.
 
Northward extent of instability for the second wave looks to be less now, probably due to the slowing qcls. Hm ?
 
1st wave in south Alabama continues to look more linear with each new HRRR run which is good.
 
Your greatest significant tornado chance will be in this corridor closest to the rain cooled air mass to the north Screenshot_20220318-045001-967.png
 
Like was mention yesterday, the southern extent threat is a legit threat. The 2nd wave more to the north just isn’t going to have what it needs to get going, just linear, if anything.
 
Good grief. Don't look at the HRRR for this afternoon. Multiple lone supercells across Alabama with strong rotation.
 
Mesoanalysis throughout the afternoon will be big. Very fluid and dangerous situation possible for this afternoon. Screenshot_20220318-065342-014.pngScreenshot_20220318-065251.png
 
You may have a mini tornado outbreak given conditions line up here in central Alabama. It's conditional on how fast the atmosphere recovers though
 
11z hrrr run has 3000+, sbcape now pushing into central Alabama this afternoon
That's pretty darn ripe.
 
DadOfJax said:
Like was mention yesterday, the southern extent threat is a legit threat. The 2nd wave more to the north just isn’t going to have what it needs to get going, just linear, if anything.
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Instability is definitely a concern to the north, but storm mode is not until right along the front. Upper level wind flow is screaming discrete Supercells.
 
Biggest lightning strike I’ve ever seen next to my window. Any rotation yet?
 
Hey anybody in bham is the sky tinted green where you are at? It is here in homewood
 
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