• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe March 14-18 severe potential.

Hey @SD can you highlight this risk timeframe like the march 21-24 event. as it looks like it'll be a bit more robust than previously thought.
 
So far HRRR long range has the qcls midway through Alabama by 6 o'clock in the morning friday. A bit slower than 12z 3km nam. Has decent convection near the gulf coast counties.
 
Now it's flooding ? and tiny bits of hail just a second ago.
 
Water rescues ongoing at uab campus st Vincent's and 5 point south.
 
RollTide18 said:
@Zander98al what do you think of the earlier round for S Alabama?
Click to expand...
Haven't really looked at it too much, been focusing on the potential redevelopment later, I think the first wave will just be damaging winds and a little bit of hail, with possibly a spin up or two, with your stronger storms in the QCLS. Closer to the gulf during the earlier round you may see a better chance at spin ups as it looks like greater instability is confined to just inland (mobile/ Baldwin county). Everything in the 1st wave will probably be semi elevated the further north in Alabama you get.
 
I'll tell you one thing long range HRRR is quick on that recovery with the atmosphere it may be more aggressive with supercells in the 00z runs. Big run coming up on the HRRR.
 
Hrrr has significant clearing in a already highly favored environment by 12pm. With a cold front pressing into west MS. Significant destabilizion will be possible. With cold front and peak heating along with divergence in the upper levels intiating that convection. Screenshot_20220316-193220-369.png
 
Pretty high low level instability, should be 200+ with low level lapse rates at around 7.5-8.
 
Good grief the at the bullish 2nd wave convection on the 00z hrrr. Doesn't show some of the cells going supercellular with the 2nd wave, but we will see. The environment is there it looks like.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Atomsphere looks to recover Friday afternoon but sparse development is now being forecasted. Wouldn't trust it this far out though, last event changed considerably 24 hours out. Albeit the main lifting mechanism that event was peak heating lol.
 
Having a hard time believing supercells don't initiate near western Alabama around peak heating Friday. Something just seems off. Hopefully not a repeat of the no lift system that started spitting out multi cluster and supercells and didn't show it on forecast till about 5 hours out. Either wait atmosphere will be ripe Friday afternoon. Wondering if models are having trouble with the dynamics of the atmosphere at play? Don't know just seems fishy at the lack of convection, cams are clearly showing a very well rebounded atmosphere and multiple lifting mechanisms at the same time. Just my thoughts ?. The cams all show a few mini supercells around the central Alabama region but I'd push that intitaion a bit to the west off of hunch
 
Zander98al said:
Having a hard time believing supercells don't initiate near western Alabama around peak heating Friday. Something just seems off. Hopefully not a repeat of the no lift system that started spitting out multi cluster and supercells and didn't show it on forecast till about 5 hours out. Either wait atmosphere will be ripe Friday afternoon. Wondering if models are having trouble with the dynamics of the atmosphere at play? Don't know just seems fishy at the lack of convection, cams are clearly showing a very well rebounded atmosphere and multiple lifting mechanisms at the same time. Just my thoughts ?. The cams all show a few mini supercells around the central Alabama region but I'd push that intitaion a bit to the west off of hunch
Click to expand...
I think the key is how well the atmosphere can rebound from the morning storms. Especially in north Alabama, it will be harder to recover this far north but still plausible as you stated with the CAMs showing it
 
HSVweather said:
I think the key is how well the atmosphere can rebound from the morning storms. Especially in north Alabama, it will be harder to recover this far north but still plausible as you stated with the CAMs showing it
Click to expand...
Think it's a lot more likely than we are putting stock into, gotta realize the sun will be completely out by mid morning after that qcls moves through. You could probably reach 3000+ sbcape in west Alabama
 
Wow that south Alabama section even with the first wave is looking nasty. STP over 6. And long updraft swaths. HRRRSE_con_stp_028.pngScreenshot_20220317-083623.pngScreenshot_20220317-083529.png
 
Check out those supercells by Selma at 9 o'clock in the morning. That's a pretty ripe area.
 
You may have a pretty good tornado event in south Alabama and then the northern extent will be dependent on that second wave. Hunch tells me it'll initiate a bit more to the west. Hrrr is already keying in rotating updrafts with supercells in the eastern half of the state. A enchanced risk in that south Alabama area will probably issued before go time.
 
Disregard poor surface lapse rates and small low level instability and you have a pretty stout reading here. This is took a little southwest of Clanton.hrrr_2022031712_027_31.91--87.89 (1).png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top