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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

The nams have slowly shown more precip and the hrrr continues to pain snow flying across central NC on Tuesday
 
I’m in pigeon forge this morning... bout to head home... NWS says 20%chance before 8 am.... 7:54 am... nothing.
 
Tiny little flurries hitting the windshield currently in Dallas,GA. I’m calling this a win for the thread starter. lol
 
NAM is moisting and the HRRR continues to paint a light snow across central NC ... maybe this becomes something fun... NOWCAST BABY
 
lol the 3km nam is slowly caving to the hrrr, the hrrr lol
Stuff around the piedmont is dealing with really dry dgzs but still
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I know this is a novelty event, but it is allowing many folks to avoid the shutout for the winter. That is pretty important for some of us.
 
KyloG said:
RGEM says we miss some flakes by about 70 miles

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North, south, east, and west. It's been like this every winter for a long time now. Maybe a rogue snowflake will blow into the area.

Edit: And it is an exceptionally sad commentary in and of itself that we find ourselves wishing upon a star to see but a period of light flurry activity.
 
Models have been juicing up this system on the 12z runs, the ICON is much wetter as is the RGEM. Areas in SE NC may see a nice little flurry event and maybe even a dusting if the rates are hard enough.
 
Rain Cold said:
North, south, east, and west. It's been like this every winter for a long time now. Maybe a rogue snowflake will blow into the area.

Edit: And it is an exceptionally sad commentary in and of itself that we find ourselves wishing upon a star to see but a period of light flurry activity.
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I usually don't care for mood snow in March but an hour or two of snow tomorrow morning would have been nice.
 
Rain Cold said:
North, south, east, and west. It's been like this every winter for a long time now. Maybe a rogue snowflake will blow into the area.

Edit: And it is an exceptionally sad commentary in and of itself that we find ourselves wishing upon a star to see but a period of light flurry activity.
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Yeah but it'll be nice for the coastal areas to see some flakes fly if things work out... it's usually a bit harder for them to see snow and assuming models verify will be a nice treat for those folks.
 
The 12Z ICON, as just mentioned, is both the wettest overall and snowiest overall (central AL/GA, coastal NC) of any ICON run yet (Isn’t it warm biased? I think SC would also get some):
 

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snowlover91 said:
Yeah but it'll be nice for the coastal areas to see some flakes fly if things work out... it's usually a bit harder for them to see snow and assuming models verify will be a nice treat for those folks.
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Bit harder? Coastal NC has been killing it, wouldn't be surprised if they have had more snow than Raleigh the past 10 years. Just a few recent ones.

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KyloG said:
Bit harder? Coastal NC has been killing it, wouldn't be surprised if they have had more snow than Raleigh the past 10 years. Just a few recent ones.
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Regardless of what they've seen in recent years the snowfall climo for Wilmington is 1.6" as seen here. Any snow along the coast is a welcome bonus, if they see some I will be happy for them.
 
12Z gfs caving to the wetter Euro and other models: this is much wetter than prior runsCA042A41-3E05-4350-B870-C12CABB1AA1E.png
 
I think based on current modeling the areas with the best chance to see some snow will be AL/GA and then up into parts of NC. SC it looks like a warm bubble may cause boundary layer issues which is a shame as qpf looks solid in SC.
 
snowlover91 said:
I think based on current modeling the areas with the best chance to see some snow will be AL/GA and then up into parts of NC. SC it looks like a warm bubble may cause boundary layer issues which is a shame as qpf looks solid in SC.
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The warm Atlantic strikes again! Anyway, here’s the clown map for entertainment only (not buying it right now but gives up to 1” not far from @GeorgiaGirl by the way):9842603E-283E-4F18-A3E8-0D9A8AD00BC0.png
 
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