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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

Not a bad little shift there....
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metwannabe said:
Just close enough to keep me curious....
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Soundings are interesting got a little lift in the 700-850mb layers and some saturation in the dgz. Wouldnt be surprising to see some virga around tuesday


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The 12Z GFS dropped most of that very light rain that it had the previous couple of runs over central GA into SE SC. Now it shows no qpf over .05” over the entire SE with the closest to 0.05” of rain just off SE SC. The only ones getting at least 0.01” of rain are from just N of SAV to just N of CHS area. None of this very light rain is anything close to wintry with temps in the 40s.
 
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Pretty much all gefs members are a whiff, what a change from 12z yesterday, it was nice tracking this chance and I’m not disappointed as I can learn from this and apply/compare it to a setup similar to this the next time
 
Rain Cold said:
Too much wedge for thunderstorms, too little wedge for snow. Stuck in rain cold purgatory till May. Just fantabulous.
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Eh we might erode the wedge just enough we get a little interesting weather tonight

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SD said:
Eh we might erode the wedge just enough we get a little interesting weather tonight

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The 3k gets close.
 
12Z Euro confirms this is pretty much a nonevent for wintry with the main feature being just light rain in parts of SW, central, and east-central GA as well as in SE SC. It retained just a tiny area of 1/2” SN just W of Macon from 0.05” of qpf with temps falling to near 32 and 850 just down to 0C fwiw. I’d interpret that as a chance of flurries or pellets mixing with the light rain in that area at best.
 
Brick Tamland said:
This one seems DOA.
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The 12Z EPS agrees. It has the least amount of qpf over the SE of at least the last 4 runs with the 0.05"+ area covering only SE SC, S GA ,and SE AL. The 0.05" line skirts the NC coast like it has the last 3+ runs. As of now, I think the best to expect over the SE are a few areas of light sleet or SN most likely mixed in with light rain for a short period . IF that occurred, it would be near the northern extent of the precip. over central AL/GA (perhaps MCN for example) and also near a Charlotte to Fayetteville line if any precip would happen to get that far north. Otherwise, it would be all light rain. But there could easily be no wintry anywhere and the trends are in the less threatening direction at the moment though there's still a little bit of time to reverse that trend and go more in the direction of the often overzealous NAM. That's my take for now fwiw.
 
FWIW it is interesting to note the signal on the last two runs of the long range experimental HRRR show a lot more precip breaking out... here is the most recent 00z run
 

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Jon said:
It would be all snow but we need moisture and there’s none here
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Yep, thats what I meant, no moisture in the snow growth zone so a cold light rain, we’re so good at that ?3CFBF58D-3620-4CAB-BD14-182B0F43B5DA.png
 
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