Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

[Shawn]

Since we are within 5 days, and the topic is dominating the March pattern thread, here you go.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Timing isn't right for my area. Go get 'em NC!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eh not bad but sfc temps are a little warm, but wetbulbing to the lowest temp would help out

 

[Webberweather53]

Eh not bad but sfc temps are a little warm, but wetbulbing to the lowest temp would help out
View attachment 17132

Obviously still a ways to go but for a marginal winter event, especially for March in NC, that’s a cold sounding by our standards. Even in the dead of winter we struggle to get anything aside from a deep 0C isothermal layer.

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[jackendrickwx]

Best guess snow? Lol ok

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Obviously still a ways to go but for a marginal winter event, especially for March in NC, that’s a cold sounding by our standards. Even in the dead of winter we struggle to get anything aside from a deep 0C isothermal layer.

Right, no warm nose, no nothing, this is the best sounding I’ve actually had this whole winter for snow other then maybe a tad bit warm sfc temps and another thing is this, with our energy trending stronger on the gfs, all this would do is help develop the band better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

better Run, all ensembles now have some type of snowfall and some have beefed it up a little

 

[KyloG]

Promising

Note: This is past 4 0z/12 GEFS runs

 

[KyloG]

UK has precip across the SE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Promising

Note: This is past 4 0z/12 GEFS runs

View attachment 17135

That energy that the gfs shows is really what’s helping us out to develop a band off the mountains along with lee side enhancement, I wonder if this little band of snow can get any convective characteristics ?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Pulling for the NC folks, trend this thing home and end winter with a bang!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That energy that the gfs shows is really what’s helping us out to develop a band off the mountains along with lee side enhancement, I wonder if this little band of snow can get any convective characteristics ?

Convectiveness would be the only thing in our favor to get us over an inch type of event .. quick mover and light precip won’t cut it but regardless I call it a win if I see flakes

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Also weird how the Gfs has been seeing this and it’s ensembles have slowly and now fully support the solution yet the Fv3 and cmc And Euro are out to lunch with this? Anyone have a take on why?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t see no Mets talking or noticing this event possibly coming other than Tim Buckley

 

[ajr]

I don’t see no Mets talking or noticing this event possibly coming other than Tim Buckley

Mets will start talking about it when models come to close agreement -- too early to talk about right now. Still need a lot of things to go our way here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let me guess, euro whiffed but was a tad closer

 

[Tarheel1]

Let me guess, euro whiffed but was a tad closer
View attachment 17138

As the “ storm” comes west, the cold stays further west.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As the “ storm” comes west, the cold stays further west.

Ofc, longwave trough lags which means the cold lags aswell

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Certainty a good trend from the GEFS, you can see that lee side enhancement