Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know he’s watching it esp since he commented on my tweet from yesterday
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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
The euro looked like an improvement to me, light precip along the immediate coastal areas.
18z RGEM hour 54 intrigues me.
packfan98
Moderator
Much drier run on the 18z GFS. Less robust energy at 500.
Energy at 500 hPa in MS/AL/GA is weaker ? we toss becuase it’s the 18z
Weird, even with the weaker energy, you would think there would be more precip ??
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Weaker would mean less precip entirely since there is not as much energy pulling moisture. I doubt there will be anything unless it strengthens.
18z so far has looked somewhat worse so far vs the 12z
I count 14 ensembles showing snow for me? Weird
Keep in mind the SE US cold bias of the GEFS vs the GFS, which isn’t cold biased. Perhaps that is somehow causing a false signal. Another thing is the tendency of the ensemble members to clump up with a similar solution, something @Webberweather53 has noted in the past.
I’d go with the EPS over GEFS for now due to its higher accuracy and just hope it will trend in the right direction. There’s still just enough time. Let’s see what the 18Z shows in the next hour or so.
How many of the 51 members of the 12Z EPS give you wintry precip?
Jon
Member
Interesting little bit of moisture in the 12z euro and it’s ensembles too. Worth watching as different models are picking up on this. Maybe these areas will get snow after all!
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Fv3 has some moisture in those areas as well looks like mostly rain though.Interesting little bit of moisture in the 12z euro and it’s ensembles too. Worth watching as different models are picking up on this. Maybe these areas will get snow after all!
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It definitely looks much too warm for anything wintry anywhere near here. What had earlier in the week looked like cold to my area by then got delayed like usual. We may get some light cool rain though.
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pcbjr
Member
36º and drizzle likely the best you'll (we'll) do ... and the drizzle when the 30's arrive is a really big, big "if" at this point in time ...
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but it was a raw, unpleasant and very wet day at Ponte Vedra today ... FWIW ...
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Phil,
I don’t even see that. I think mid 40s at the very coldest with the rain and probably more like 48-52. It is incredible how much the cold has backed out vs model consensus of just a week or so ago. Back then, it was showing far southern sliders for two waves in some cases going over S FL with 0C 850 at least down to my area and colder air already entrenched to the Gulf coast by no later than late on March 4 or early on March 5 (Tuesday). What does NWS Mon night and Tue forecast now have for here? Low of 45 and then high of 62. Gainesville is forecasted at an even warmer 50 followed by a high of 62. The cold and a potential light freeze now don’t even get to us til Tue night, which is after this second wave goes through.
pcbjr
Member
Not getting too deep into IMBY ... and I've been at Ponte Vedra all day so haven't studied, but NWS JAX (KGNV) is showing 38º Tuesday and 36º Wednesday night ... TWC is even more aggressive at 35º Wednesday ... point being, if it gets cold, rain and moisture are long gone ... that much I did look at hard ...
If this doesn’t fire up some at least light precip I’m getting high, energy is stronger 
Both NAMs took steps to giving somebody a nice little flizzard