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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather

SD said:
Yeah... interested to see the rest of the runs tonight

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It would be something if they caved to the gfs, gfs has actually been decent lately ? still sucks lol
 
I said yesterday I fully expect to get NAM'd at least once, came darn close tonight lol. And I was just about to cut this one loose too....

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metwannabe said:
I said yesterday I fully expect to get NAM'd at least once, came darn close tonight lol. And I was just about to cut this one loose too....

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At least this has had GFS support too so that gives it some added weight. Let’s see what the rest of the models show, the nam was stronger with the energy which is a good sign if other models follow too.
 
00z RGEM still looks interesting.
BD0476D6-9D84-4790-9408-3CD6E68A59E7.png
Edit: Louisiana actually gets RGEM’d lol
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BufordWX said:
00z RGEM still looks interesting.View attachment 17159
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Surely this is well overdone.
rgem_asnow_seus_48.png

RGEM is on an island right now
 
Some decent agreement on temps between NAM 12k and RGEM. 3k NAM isn't convinced
rgem_T2m_seus_49.png
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RGEM can at times be too amped and/or wet in the 42-54 hour range. 3km NAM is sometimes too dry. A blend of the two as we get more in range is a good way to go. Having said that it’s interesting that everything so far is taking steps in the right direction for maybe some flurries.
 
For the 2nd run in a row, the GFS has no wintry anywhere in the SE. About the best it has is mid to upper 40s and some very shortlived light rain in a small part of south central GA (including here). A total nothinburger.
 
Pretty close for NC9AEC9CB9-7377-4A5A-B721-63969706FADB.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
meh, it definitely trended downward
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Yep, it is trending to perhaps a very short period of light rain in a small strip of mainly GA/SC. Yawn. This is currently much less of a threat than even that anafront fail in AL/GA of a few weeks ago.
The first freezes for many in a long time that are following this are much more interesting to me. Maybe they'd kill back the dang bugs some for now. I found 3 wasps in my house in 3 days and can't figure out how they're getting in. It isn't from opening any door or window.
 
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I'd like to note that modeling that does have precipitation in areas like SC.. is probably too little for the snow growth region to be saturated enough for snowflakes(if 850mb temps are even cold enough), much less heavy snowfall to cool down the atmosphere.. Combine that with less than ideal temps, and you end up with overcast & light drizzle.
 
I think if anyone sees enough precip for snow it’ll be in NC. The GFS and it’s ensembles had been showing that, the ICON hints at it and the NAM does too. It’ll all depend on how strong the system is and how much moisture there is aloft. Here’s a sounding for an area the NAM shows getting snow in NC.
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0Z Euro: other than skirting the coast with light rain, it has virtually no measurable precip in NC. It like other models has very light rain in E SC. It has short lived very light SN in a very thin strip central MS, AL, west central GA (Columbus), which I’m not buying right now as snow. It would be very light rain, if anything falls that light.
 
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