For the 2nd run in a row, the GFS has no wintry anywhere in the SE. About the best it has is mid to upper 40s and some very shortlived light rain in a small part of south central GA (including here). A total nothinburger.
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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Pretty close for NC
meh, it definitely trended downward
olhausen
Member
Gfs also trending better up here for tomorrow. I just wish the surface temps could get cold enough during the heaviest precipitation.
Yep, it is trending to perhaps a very short period of light rain in a small strip of mainly GA/SC. Yawn. This is currently much less of a threat than even that anafront fail in AL/GA of a few weeks ago.
The first freezes for many in a long time that are following this are much more interesting to me. Maybe they'd kill back the dang bugs some for now. I found 3 wasps in my house in 3 days and can't figure out how they're getting in. It isn't from opening any door or window.
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snowlover91
Member
UK is oh so close.
Improvement Tonight.
I wouldn’t say that, gefs was a big step back with the 00z run
This is now the range to look a short range models or even to a lesser extent global.
Much of that UK precip in the SE almost has to be just rain, if not almost all of it. If you’re talking about improvement toward light rain chances in your area, I’d agree. That’s what GFS/GEFS suggest, too.
Yes improved in terms of moisture.
I'd like to note that modeling that does have precipitation in areas like SC.. is probably too little for the snow growth region to be saturated enough for snowflakes(if 850mb temps are even cold enough), much less heavy snowfall to cool down the atmosphere.. Combine that with less than ideal temps, and you end up with overcast & light drizzle.
snowlover91
Member
I think if anyone sees enough precip for snow it’ll be in NC. The GFS and it’s ensembles had been showing that, the ICON hints at it and the NAM does too. It’ll all depend on how strong the system is and how much moisture there is aloft. Here’s a sounding for an area the NAM shows getting snow in NC.
accu35
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We don't need improvement with moisture. We have enough rain already
0Z Euro: other than skirting the coast with light rain, it has virtually no measurable precip in NC. It like other models has very light rain in E SC. It has short lived very light SN in a very thin strip central MS, AL, west central GA (Columbus), which I’m not buying right now as snow. It would be very light rain, if anything falls that light.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z ECMWF had a few isolated rain/snow showers generally along a corridor from about Montgomery, AL to Macon, GA, Columbia, SC and Fayetteville, NC.
All in for a flake of snow here in the Midlands.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Looks like you have a better chance than we do.
Just close enough to keep me curious....
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