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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Timing isn't right for my area. Go get 'em NC!
Eh not bad but sfc temps are a little warm, but wetbulbing to the lowest temp would help out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Obviously still a ways to go but for a marginal winter event, especially for March in NC, that’s a cold sounding by our standards. Even in the dead of winter we struggle to get anything aside from a deep 0C isothermal layer.
Best guess snow? Lol ok
Right, no warm nose, no nothing, this is the best sounding I’ve actually had this whole winter for snow other then maybe a tad bit warm sfc temps and another thing is this, with our energy trending stronger on the gfs, all this would do is help develop the band better
better Run, all ensembles now have some type of snowfall and some have beefed it up a little
That energy that the gfs shows is really what’s helping us out to develop a band off the mountains along with lee side enhancement, I wonder if this little band of snow can get any convective characteristics ?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Pulling for the NC folks, trend this thing home and end winter with a bang!
Convectiveness would be the only thing in our favor to get us over an inch type of event .. quick mover and light precip won’t cut it but regardless I call it a win if I see flakes
Also weird how the Gfs has been seeing this and it’s ensembles have slowly and now fully support the solution yet the Fv3 and cmc And Euro are out to lunch with this? Anyone have a take on why?
I don’t see no Mets talking or noticing this event possibly coming other than Tim Buckley
ajr
Member
Mets will start talking about it when models come to close agreement -- too early to talk about right now. Still need a lot of things to go our way here.
Let me guess, euro whiffed but was a tad closer
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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As the “ storm” comes west, the cold stays further west.
Ofc, longwave trough lags which means the cold lags aswell
Certainty a good trend from the GEFS, you can see that lee side enhancement 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know he’s watching it esp since he commented on my tweet from yesterday
snowlover91
Member
The euro looked like an improvement to me, light precip along the immediate coastal areas.
BufordWX
Member
18z RGEM hour 54 intrigues me.
packfan98
Moderator
Much drier run on the 18z GFS. Less robust energy at 500.
Energy at 500 hPa in MS/AL/GA is weaker ? we toss becuase it’s the 18z
Weird, even with the weaker energy, you would think there would be more precip ??
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Weaker would mean less precip entirely since there is not as much energy pulling moisture. I doubt there will be anything unless it strengthens.
18z so far has looked somewhat worse so far vs the 12z
I count 14 ensembles showing snow for me? Weird
Keep in mind the SE US cold bias of the GEFS vs the GFS, which isn’t cold biased. Perhaps that is somehow causing a false signal. Another thing is the tendency of the ensemble members to clump up with a similar solution, something @Webberweather53 has noted in the past.
I’d go with the EPS over GEFS for now due to its higher accuracy and just hope it will trend in the right direction. There’s still just enough time. Let’s see what the 18Z shows in the next hour or so.
How many of the 51 members of the 12Z EPS give you wintry precip?
Jon
Member
Interesting little bit of moisture in the 12z euro and it’s ensembles too. Worth watching as different models are picking up on this. Maybe these areas will get snow after all!
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BufordWX
Member
Fv3 has some moisture in those areas as well looks like mostly rain though.Interesting little bit of moisture in the 12z euro and it’s ensembles too. Worth watching as different models are picking up on this. Maybe these areas will get snow after all!
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It definitely looks much too warm for anything wintry anywhere near here. What had earlier in the week looked like cold to my area by then got delayed like usual. We may get some light cool rain though.
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pcbjr
Member
36º and drizzle likely the best you'll (we'll) do ... and the drizzle when the 30's arrive is a really big, big "if" at this point in time ...
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but it was a raw, unpleasant and very wet day at Ponte Vedra today ... FWIW ...
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Phil,
I don’t even see that. I think mid 40s at the very coldest with the rain and probably more like 48-52. It is incredible how much the cold has backed out vs model consensus of just a week or so ago. Back then, it was showing far southern sliders for two waves in some cases going over S FL with 0C 850 at least down to my area and colder air already entrenched to the Gulf coast by no later than late on March 4 or early on March 5 (Tuesday). What does NWS Mon night and Tue forecast now have for here? Low of 45 and then high of 62. Gainesville is forecasted at an even warmer 50 followed by a high of 62. The cold and a potential light freeze now don’t even get to us til Tue night, which is after this second wave goes through.
pcbjr
Member
Not getting too deep into IMBY ... and I've been at Ponte Vedra all day so haven't studied, but NWS JAX (KGNV) is showing 38º Tuesday and 36º Wednesday night ... TWC is even more aggressive at 35º Wednesday ... point being, if it gets cold, rain and moisture are long gone ... that much I did look at hard ...
If this doesn’t fire up some at least light precip I’m getting high, energy is stronger 
Both NAMs took steps to giving somebody a nice little flizzard