snowlover91
Member
CMC also is coming in with substantially more precip, wow.
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Wintry March 05-06th 2019 Wintry Weather
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Hrrr is normally to dry, interesting, some dgzs are moist enough aswell
shawn you think there's a flake in there for us?
oh forget ? I just asked then lol
If soundings are right, even on the heavier precipitation, I still see light drizzle right now.
This is the best look the area has per GFS.. as you can see, no go even with some flakes way up there.. temps.... 46F with a dew of 40F.
snowlover91
Member
HRRR composite reflectivity shows quite well the band of heavy precip that develops over SC and has it sliding NE into NC. This will be something to watch as returns look solid with it.
awesome maybe I'll drive to just west of Augusta lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah that might be flurries mixed in with rain. That's close lol, maybe just merely over the border. I'm not holding my breath though to the point where I'm getting up early.
You will want to go up to from Florence into the SC/NC border county area.. IF the HRRR is even close to right.. I don't trust simulated reflectivity maps, especially from that model.. but you'd be better off going that route to have a chance.
Looking like we may see a few snow flurries tonight in the RDU area if the HRRR is right.
Parts of GA just got Rapped...... ok I’ll stop
Please let the hrrr be right, small snowflakes but it’s something
The RAP....
@Jimmy Hypocracy NW trend and we've got drizzle!
We may not rip fat dendrites in central NC tomorrow morning but I still wouldn't be surprised to see some of the small "dandruff" flake type stuff around in the morning rush to mid morning time period.
snowlover91
Member
The RAP seems to be trending wetter as well, each run looks better. Some interesting last minute changes going on today for sure.
These trends tho
I would like to note I ran a singular test on the HRRR, GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPS during a large rain event at the beginning of the year and the EPS followed by the GEFS did the best in regards to how much fell in my back yard. The HRRR was extremely skewed by inches within 8 hours of the event and the NAM was under done.
One test isn't enough data to say if the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS combo is always the most accurate, but it will be interesting to tally up what those models show in regards to total precipitation in this weak event versus the hi-res mesoscale guidance.
If I have time, I will summarize the 12z guidance precipitation totals from the whole suite of models for this area since it looks to get heavier precip and see how they perform this time around.
One test isn't enough data to say if the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS combo is always the most accurate, but it will be interesting to tally up what those models show in regards to total precipitation in this weak event versus the hi-res mesoscale guidance.
If I have time, I will summarize the 12z guidance precipitation totals from the whole suite of models for this area since it looks to get heavier precip and see how they perform this time around.
why is everyone assuming 10 to 1? Not happening. Asheville NC to Charlotte Metro may see some snow showers in this setup
Accumulations will be wet. Some grass may become snow covered while it’s snowing but melt during any breaks or as precip shunts east. Going to be very isolated for anyone to see 1” imo. But I know many would be happy with a light coating of snow under 0.5”. This will not affect the roads anywhere.
snowlover91
Member
I don't see anyone talking about more than a dusting as a best case scenario here.
snowlover91
Member
I think the 12km NAM also deserves credit, it picked up on a wetter solution as early as the 6z run on Sunday.
hrrr says areas around fay could get some decent SN showers, saturated sounding with better lift in the dgz
Indeed, But oddly enough, the 12Z NAMs are significantly drier than the 6Z versions overall, which is about the only drier 12Z run vs the respective prior run. Let's see what the Euro says in an hour+.
This is based off the KCAE airport area. These are not snow totals, just precipitation as a whole using 24 hour accumulation maps.
I am using Tropical Tidbits, as I have no raw data access to the majority of these models. I wanted to use the same method, the only difference is I will be using Weatherbell to get amounts from the Euro to update this post in a little while. Ranges like 0.20 - 0.30 are large differences, but I'm trying to be fair here due to larger gridding of the globals, which in turn won't resolve the miniscule details as well.
I will be updating this post with the GEFS/ECMWF/EPS later on and reposting it.
In summary, so far without Euro data:
The HRRR, 3KM NAM, and CMC are the lightest.
The GFS followed by ICON & FV3 & RGEM are heaviest.
The mean of all the models, so far using the higher tiers of totals noted below comes out to:
0.143 inches of precipitation.
KCAE Precipitation Accumulation:
12z ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
12z GFS: 0.20 - 0.30
12z FV3: 0.15 - 0.20 (has heavier amounts, but shifted to the West versus the GFS's location)
12z CMC: 0.05 or so (heavier precipiotation towards the South)
12z RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20 (the higher end is a tiny blip in Richland county and it has heavier axis South of the GFS and FV3 in the Augusta area)
12z NAM 3KM: 0.01 - 0.05 (random areas of 0.10+ to the South)
12z NAM 12KM: 0.05-0.10 (heavier just to the South with a large area of 0.20 or so)
12z HRRR: 0.05, maybe a tad more. (heavier precipitation to the North and South)
I am using Tropical Tidbits, as I have no raw data access to the majority of these models. I wanted to use the same method, the only difference is I will be using Weatherbell to get amounts from the Euro to update this post in a little while. Ranges like 0.20 - 0.30 are large differences, but I'm trying to be fair here due to larger gridding of the globals, which in turn won't resolve the miniscule details as well.
I will be updating this post with the GEFS/ECMWF/EPS later on and reposting it.
In summary, so far without Euro data:
The HRRR, 3KM NAM, and CMC are the lightest.
The GFS followed by ICON & FV3 & RGEM are heaviest.
The mean of all the models, so far using the higher tiers of totals noted below comes out to:
0.143 inches of precipitation.
KCAE Precipitation Accumulation:
12z ICON: 0.15 - 0.20
12z GFS: 0.20 - 0.30
12z FV3: 0.15 - 0.20 (has heavier amounts, but shifted to the West versus the GFS's location)
12z CMC: 0.05 or so (heavier precipiotation towards the South)
12z RGEM: 0.15 - 0.20 (the higher end is a tiny blip in Richland county and it has heavier axis South of the GFS and FV3 in the Augusta area)
12z NAM 3KM: 0.01 - 0.05 (random areas of 0.10+ to the South)
12z NAM 12KM: 0.05-0.10 (heavier just to the South with a large area of 0.20 or so)
12z HRRR: 0.05, maybe a tad more. (heavier precipitation to the North and South)
Gefs is better
snowlover91
Member
Very nice, this will be interesting to see how the 12z runs turn out vs what's modeled. Would you add in the UK and RAP 12z runs as well so we can get a good comparison of all globals vs meso models?
If anyone has access to raw model data (the number stuff) from most modeling, I'd like to possibly develop us a tool that will calculate all the data from a certain station ID, compute them together, and come up with a mean of precip/snow in the future.
I think a tool like this could be invaluable to us and we could make much more accurate forecasts for our areas.. I'm thinking NWS use tools that do this already.
I haven't been able to make the tool yet, because I think only accuweather pro allows you to have raw data from the euro and other modeling as a whole. I had asked Ryan Maue to consider adding raw euro output to his modeling site, along with others, but he said most people didn't care for it so it's low priority.
I think a tool like this could be invaluable to us and we could make much more accurate forecasts for our areas.. I'm thinking NWS use tools that do this already.
I haven't been able to make the tool yet, because I think only accuweather pro allows you to have raw data from the euro and other modeling as a whole. I had asked Ryan Maue to consider adding raw euro output to his modeling site, along with others, but he said most people didn't care for it so it's low priority.
I will definitely add the UK as long as someone with the data from weathermodels can post the map/message it to me as I have no access to it. I will go ahead and add the RAP to the list and get the GEFS in a few ready to post for when the EPS comes out.
snowlover91
Member
UK came in significantly wetter as well. I would expect the Euro to follow suit.
