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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton


ILMRoss said:
As stated above, classic RI look. I think it intensifies to high 920s/low 930s until it has an eyewall replacement cycle and plateaus a little before weakening.

The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
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It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.

But yes it will put on a show before that.
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As quickly as it's organizing, an ERC becomes more likely. But they're a two-edged sword; the max winds are eviscerated while the wind field expands. Katrina lost her max punch on landfall but certainly delivered a knockout blow. Any large major hurricane crossing the gulf will deliver a severe punch on landfall.
 
HDGator said:
As quickly as it's organizing, an ERC becomes more likely. But they're a two-edged sword; the max winds are eviscerated while the wind field expands. Katrina lost her max punch on landfall but certainly delivered a knockout blow. Any large major hurricane crossing the gulf will deliver a severe punch on landfall.
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There will almost certainly be an EWRC and I bet it happens after taking in some dry air over the Yucatan like Helene did. The wind field will expand. However, I don't think Katrina is a great comp as Katrina's conditions upon landfall weren't as hostile. Katrina still had a landfall in the 920s- If we get lucky I don't think a sloppy 970+ Cat 2 is out of the question. Once dry air and shear intrude I think Milton's clothes will come off quickly, and the hurricane models show this. The question is- when does that happen, and are they too aggressive with the weakening?
 
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An even further north landfall along the Florida peninsula isn't out of the question IMO. The faster Milton moves, the more intense the storm is when near this position, the further north it would come. It'll be a race to the coast before the trough over Mississippi lifts and the storm is blasted by westerly shear.
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0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed

0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning

0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night

0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon

Edit for Euro:

0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening

Edit: N to S:
GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET

-GFS remains quite a N outlier
-UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier
 
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I just dont' know how much of that sharp movement I buy into once It starts to make the approach to FL...Either way, there are a few northernly models *landfall talking about* that are already struggling with the short term motion so let's see how that plays out today.
 
deltadog03 said:
I just dont' know how much of that sharp movement I buy into once It starts to make the approach to FL...Either way, there are a few northernly models *landfall talking about* that are already struggling with the short term motion so let's see how that plays out today.
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We are on run 3 of Hwfr with the turn. Agreed, if it continues today without flipping back and forth, I'll bet on it.
 
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