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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
Brent said:
Don't see an inland M much View attachment 152732
Click to expand...
Milton is looking more ominous tonight. The IR sat shows an expanding CDO and continued organization. The situation for FL is looking more ominous. Landfall as a major with increasing forward speed will expand the damage inland across the entire FL peninsula. This severely threatens central FL and presents coastal threats of wind and surge damage on the east coast.

They are really not ready for this on the west coast of FL after Helene. Tampa Bay - St. Pete area hasn't experienced this kind of impact in a lifetime. It's time to send some prayers up for our FL brothers.
 
HDGator said:
Milton is looking more ominous tonight. The IR sat shows an expanding CDO and continued organization. The situation for FL is looking more ominous. Landfall as a major with increasing forward speed will expand the damage inland across the entire FL peninsula. This severely threatens central FL and presents coastal threats of wind and surge damage on the east coast.

They are really not ready for this on the west coast of FL after Helene. Tampa Bay - St. Pete area hasn't experienced this kind of impact in a lifetime. It's time to send some prayers up for our FL brothers.
Click to expand...

Yeah 1848 nearly every home in Tampa was destroyed so yeah...

And that was with hardly any population. The article about 1848 mentions uninhabited Florida lol
 
As stated above, classic RI look. I think it intensifies to high 920s/low 930s until it has an eyewall replacement cycle and plateaus a little before weakening.

The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
1728271490630.png
It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.

But yes it will put on a show before that.
 
ILMRoss said:
As stated above, classic RI look. I think it intensifies to high 920s/low 930s until it has an eyewall replacement cycle and plateaus a little before weakening.

The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
View attachment 152733
It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.

But yes it will put on a show before that.
Click to expand...

Yeah the only thing about that is I remember Katrina falling apart too

I think Tampas best chance is it going south. Offshore flow...
 
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