Brent
Member
So far it's running ahead of even the strongest models
Recon will be back in the center shortly. Based on hi-res visible satellite, I'll be shocked if they don't find a several Mb drop.So far it's running ahead of even the strongest models
The GFS op has a more stout WAR and has a stronger shortwave trough over Southern Mississippi/Alabama which digs harder, where the rest of the modeling is more zonal flow across the region.12Z GEFS tells me these things:
- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa
- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational
- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?
Edit: The answer may be that members are run at lower resolution and thus are mainly weaker than the GFS op. With them weaker, they’re track on further S in the progged atmospheric env.
You can see the press from that short wave. It's not digging as much as yesterday, but you can see why this doesn't have a lot of wiggle room north in the shorter term.
View attachment 152716
There is a clear low-level circulation near 26N 87W. It's highly sheared but it looks pretty vigorous with banding evident to the SE. IDK what to make of this but you've put it on my radar.Chris and others,
Watch that area of convection in the E GOM. Model consensus is suggesting that COULD spawn a shortlived TC as it moves E to off the FL E coast. Besides affecting stats, I and others are thinking that could potentially have a nontrivial influence of some kind(s) on Milton.
12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z
The size of circulation being shown on the 84hr NAM is a little frightening. It’s the nam, but it does seem like Milton will be quite a large storm by the time it makes landfall in Florida. Even if the core isn’t as intense, that’s prob a net negative for tampa bay/populated areas as the goal posts for a strong surge will be much wider.