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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Look at that pinhole. Good luck getting dry air inside that any time soon. Luckily there’s still time into midweek for Milton to change structure but for now this is what nightmares are made of
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Hopefully it motivates some evacuations. The tide surge is gonna be brutal.
 
10 am NHC


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
jrips27 said:
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The things concerning about an EWRC later today or tonight is that once it’s complete, the storm will still have about 24-36 hours of favorable conditions to restrengthen before it start to weaken on approach and begin a conversion to extra tropical. Also the EWRC will spread the wind field out producing more impacts over a wider area
 
LickWx said:
Won’t change the surge it’s pushing though, that’s already a done deal… scary. I hope it avoids Tampa to the emptier north.
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Yeah, surge will be a big problem, particularly if it stays in the high end 3-5 range, traversing the whole Gulf.
 
Chazwin said:
The things concerning about an EWRC later today or tonight is that once it’s complete, the storm will still have about 24-36 hours of favorable conditions to restrengthen before it start to weaken on approach and begin a conversion to extra tropical. Also the EWRC will spread the wind field out producing more impacts over a wider area
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Recovering from ERCs tend to take longer than forecast, so hopefully that will be the case this time as well.
 
LickWx said:
Won’t change the surge it’s pushing though, that’s already a done deal… scary. I hope it avoids Tampa to the emptier north.
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South of Tampa would be better for them. North would still be bad. Helene killed quite a few people there and it missed by 100 miles
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
i don’t think 155 is a cat
The National Weather Service rates hurricanes by their intensity, using a scale of one to five.
The scale, which is outlined below, categorizes storms according to their sustained winds; the
storm surges produced; and expected damage:
Category One:
• Winds of 74 to 95 mph, storm surge of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide.
• Damage to shrubbery, trees, poorly constructed signs, and unanchored mobile homes.
Low lying coastal roads inundated.
Category Two:
• Winds of 96 to 110 mph, storm surge of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide.
• Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some wind and door damage. Major
damage to exposed mobile homes.
• Coastal roads and low lying escape routes made impassable by rising water 2 to 4 hours
before arrival of hurricane.
Category Three:
• Winds of 111 to 130 mph, storm surge 9 to 12 feet above normal tide.
• Large trees blown down.
• Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some window and door damage. Some
structural damage to small buildings.
• Mobile homes destroyed.
• Serious flooding at the coast; many small structures destroyed; large structures
damaged by waves and debris.
Category Four:
• Winds of 131 to 155 mph, storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal tide.
• Shrubs and trees blown down, all signs down.
• Extensive damage to roofing materials, windows, and doors.
• Complete failure of roofs of many small residences.
• Complete destruction of mobile homes.
• Flat terrain 10 feet or less above sea level flooded inland as far as six miles.
• Major damage to lower floors of structures near shore.
Category Five:
• Winds greater than 155 mph, storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal tide.
• Shrubs and trees blown down; considerable damage to roofs of buildings.
• Very severe and extensive damage to windows and doors.
• Complete failure of roofs on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete
building failures.
• Complete destruction of mobile homes.
• Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5 to 10 miles of sho
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000
URNT15 KNHC 071540
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 44 20241007
153200 2133N 09156W 6964 03043 9888 +125 +040 324071 071 063 002 00
153230 2134N 09157W 6963 03051 9899 +122 +039 327068 070 063 002 00
153300 2134N 09158W 6962 03057 9907 +119 +036 331066 068 061 005 00
153330 2135N 09200W 6961 03067 9911 +123 +037 333064 065 061 003 00
153400 2134N 09201W 6961 03073 9923 +120 +037 331065 066 /// /// 03
153430 2132N 09201W 6965 03073 9930 +117 +040 324064 066 /// /// 03
153500 2130N 09159W 6961 03075 9924 +121 +040 319061 062 057 001 03
153530 2131N 09157W 6962 03062 9908 +125 +038 316062 064 057 000 03
153600 2131N 09155W 6970 03043 9898 +124 +038 315066 068 060 003 00
153630 2132N 09153W 6961 03044 9889 +121 +038 316072 073 064 003 00
153700 2133N 09151W 6963 03027 9860 +134 +035 315074 076 067 003 00
153730 2134N 09150W 6951 03021 9841 +133 +038 313078 080 071 004 00
153800 2135N 09148W 6979 02966 9823 +126 +041 316083 084 077 005 00
153830 2136N 09146W 6956 02959 9803 +108 +042 312097 104 085 009 00
153900 2137N 09145W 6979 02871 9755 +092 +043 313115 123 105 021 00
153930 2138N 09143W 6949 02820 9663 +089 +040 311137 146 133 063 00
154000 2139N 09141W 6945 02667 9479 +101 +052 314142 158 176 042 00
154030 2140N 09139W 7095 02356 9292 +177 +064 296050 116 174 027 00
154100 2141N 09138W 6978 02468 9242 +188 +046 291015 037 101 008 03
154130 2142N 09137W 6946 02519 9257 +172 +042 050006 007 023 000 00
Brent said:
Probably a 5 now.... Pressure still plunging
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Yep. Per the reduction factor, 165 mph.
 
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