Shaggy
Member
Yeahs that's a lot of early SE motion. If that's right then a father southeast landfall would be expected. Short term motion so we'll know soon enough if it's right
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
From the 5 PM NHC discussion. I'd call this evolution non-trivial.
"Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton."
rburrel2
Member
Yeah the big issue will be as it nears Florida it will become increasingly post tropical and that always expands the wind field. If you notice as soon as it clears Florida the NHC has it post tropical
Yep. And looking at the models it seems like there will be quite a strong surge along the East coast of northern Florida that’s being enhanced with the transition. That area rarely gets a strong surge from a hurricane.
18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
Nam.....Thursday landfall......North.
It wasn't long ago that we were expecting a storm to move on an anomalous ENE trajectory into the Florida peninsula. Now it looks to be approaching the coast on a more traditional NE to NNE path. This alone makes forecasting the ultimate landfall location more challenging.
Last edited:
Brick Tamland
Member
Here we go again with the forecasted strength increasing. Expected to become a cat 4 and hopefully weaken to a cat 3 at landfall. Still, that's a major hurricane, and have to see if it actually weakens
Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that form 10/1-10:
GFS is significantly slower so far thru 57
NOAA synoptic recon data will be ingested into the 00Z runs. I view the 18Z runs as Happy Hour.
@pcbjr and other Hogtownites are probably a little nervous seeing this 18Z GFS track. This landfall near Crystal River is not til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.
Recon inbound shortly. I think they'll find about a 100mph CAT 2 cane before the mission is done.
The end-of-day visible presentation is impressive.
The end-of-day visible presentation is impressive.
Looks like 978 Mb XTRP on the first pass. 60 knots NW quad.
Stormsfury
Member
2nd pass looks a couple mb's deeper and near 85kt flight level winds
This new burst of convection may send this thing to the moon overnight
Couple of things to watch. First the lead wave/ system is going to want to suppress the ridge out front which would want to trend Milton SE. If more separation occurs though there will be a potential for height rises behind the lead wave ahead of the incoming conus trough which would lead to a NW trend.
Second I'm not sure how beneficial it may be in the grand scheme but it seems like there's going to be a race between landfall and the start of ET and the system getting a little more ragged. Like I said it may end up not making a huge difference but hopefully it can help
Second I'm not sure how beneficial it may be in the grand scheme but it seems like there's going to be a race between landfall and the start of ET and the system getting a little more ragged. Like I said it may end up not making a huge difference but hopefully it can help
Stormsfury
Member
The frontal low if moving east in tandem with Milton would bump the ridge ahead up a little but it would also should serve to also keep Milton moving a bit more easterly. The other thing to watch is the shortwave trough that the GFS kind of digs a little, which it was showing on the earlier runs, while most other modeling kept more zonal flow over the Deep South