• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

It looks like on the last few frames of the satellite that the storm has lost all southerly component to its forward motion and might be starting to go just barely north of due east. Also I’m curious what the wave heights are right now near the northwest Yucatán coast… that’s an area that typically is already fairly rough
 
Chazwin said:
It looks like on the last few frames of the satellite that the storm has lost all southerly component to its forward motion and might be starting to go just barely north of due east. Also I’m curious what the wave heights are right now near the northwest Yucatán coast… that’s an area that typically is already fairly rough
Click to expand...
This motion about kills any chance of significant land interaction. And, it looks like the forward motion is picking up the pace too.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
This motion about kills any chance of significant land interaction. And, it looks like the forward motion is picking up the pace too.
Click to expand...
You’re right. With the small core and small eye, it was going to have to get extremely close if not make a landfall to have any real effect on the storm.
 
Chazwin said:
It looks like on the last few frames of the satellite that the storm has lost all southerly component to its forward motion and might be starting to go just barely north of due east. Also I’m curious what the wave heights are right now near the northwest Yucatán coast… that’s an area that typically is already fairly rough
Click to expand...
Can’t a mega strong storm like this, actually “ bounce” of of land like the Yucatán?? Maybe its strength saved its small demise?? I think this is a thing??
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Theoretical max potential energy. Someone somewhere on Twitter has a map showing GOM supporting 900mb intensity but nothing less than that. But with the way pressure continues to drop like a rock we’ll see if that’s true
Click to expand...
Just saw Webb mentioned on Twitter that MPI may not fully account for the conveniently placed jet streak tomorrow which may allow Milton to strengthen past the calculated values in the GOM
 
Chazwin said:
It looks like on the last few frames of the satellite that the storm has lost all southerly component to its forward motion and might be starting to go just barely north of due east. Also I’m curious what the wave heights are right now near the northwest Yucatán coast… that’s an area that typically is already fairly rough
Click to expand...
yeah- radar, satellite, recon data all confirm this. turn happened quicker than expected from NHC forecast
1728328617645.png
be wary using the eye on this graphic as the true center due to parallax, but you get the idea.

will need a few more hours of movement to determine whether this is just an illusion from a troichoidal wobble or a systematic deviation from NHC/model consensus stemming from a more intense storm than guidance prognosticated. something to keep an eye on!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t a mega strong storm like this, actually “ bounce” of of land like the Yucatán?? Maybe its strength saved its small demise?? I think this is a thing??
Click to expand...
Storms usually seem to attempt to avoid landfall in the absence of defined steering. That said, I've seen more than a few hurricanes get pulled into the coast when a landmass is to the south. I was sort of hoping this may occur with Milton but the recent motion and small core makes this extremely unlikely.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t a mega strong storm like this, actually “ bounce” of of land like the Yucatán?? Maybe its strength saved its small demise?? I think this is a thing??
Click to expand...
I’m not sure if it is or not. I’ve notice a few times storms that are riding close to the southern coast of Cuba tend to bounce around little and take some weird jogs. Of course that a much different land than the Yucatan. Cuba has some tall mountains and the Yucatán is flat
 
ILMRoss said:
yeah- radar, satellite, recon data all confirm this. turn happened quicker than expected from NHC forecast
View attachment 152808
be wary using the eye on this graphic as the true center due to parallax, but you get the idea.

will need a few more hours of movement to determine whether this is just an illusion from a troichoidal wobble or a systematic deviation from NHC/model consensus stemming from a more intense storm than guidance prognosticated. something to keep an eye on!
Click to expand...
Obviously we’re used to seeing stronger storms moving west tend to move more along the northern side of the track. Would that still be the case with a storm moving east?
 
Chazwin said:
Obviously we’re used to seeing stronger storms moving west tend to move more along the northern side of the track. Would that still be the case with a storm moving east?
Click to expand...
I think so but I'll mention a lot of my internal climatology maxims like the above are scrambled. Steering currents in the upper levels definitely favor more northward movement though, may be that

1728331471017.png

this storm is also likely flooding the upper atmosphere with hot air via latent heat release in condensation- there's a ridge to the east of the storm at the 200 mb level that may be getting stronger than forecast and exerting more northerly influence. i would be interested in seeing if this is a systematic change or just a blip and i'm just yapping about nothing. it would make sense though, i generally think models will be playing catch up until the 00z suite tonight
 
lexxnchloe said:
You should. Most likely it will hit as a cat3.
Click to expand...
Storm surge kills. Unless he has multiple escape routes or plans to stay well away from surge zones, no.

Edit: *IF* this thing heads towards the bay, people are not ready for the surge. Top that with debris from the last event that has been dropped off around the state.. this is not one to play with, even at Cat. 1
 
Shaggy said:
The fact wilma was 882 with a 2 mile wide eye. I think he gets down to 900-905 easily but reistically speaking sub 900 is almost unheard let alone sub 890
Click to expand...

2 mile eye? That's basically a large tornado.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
One thing I’m a little encouraged by is that the hurricane models show it weakning as it goes in around Tampa. If you recall, they absolutely nailed the intensity of Helene.
 
So is Milton moving E or NE? Some say it started the turn but NHC says east
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top