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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

ILMRoss said:
the usual suspects- dry air and shear. i still maintain that when this thing deteriorates it will deteriorate fast

you can feel it in the air this morning. woke up and the house was sitting at 65 (no heat on). i think it's inevitable dry air gets ingested tomorrow on the southeast side- all models show this- the question to me is how long it can maintain its structural integrity
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the impacts will be similar but i don't agree verbatim with the "the impacts will be the exact same" message- personally i think there's a big difference between a ragged but intact storm coming ashore vs. a half-icane that has been decaying for a little bit
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Agreed. I think too much is made of storm size in regards to surge potential. Will more areas be affected by surge in a big storm with a long fetch? Sure. But you really need those cat 4+ max winds in the eyewall to push a 12-15ft+ storm surge.

This is setting up to be a widespread 6-9 foot surge which will be very bad, but I don’t think 12-15ft materializes anywhere unless the southern eyewall stays in tact(not likely).
 
rburrel2 said:
Agreed. I think too much is made of storm size in regards to surge potential. Will more areas be affected by surge in a big storm with a long fetch? Sure. But you really need those cat 4+ max winds in the eyewall to push a 12-15ft+ storm surge.

This is setting up to be a widespread 6-9 foot surge which will be very bad, but I don’t think 12-15ft materializes anywhere unless the southern eyewall stays in tact(not likely).
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While the southern eyewall may not make it, the eastern eyewall will likely be bolstered upon landfall by frictional convergence at the surface and for TB that may be enough
 
ILMRoss said:
While the southern eyewall may not make it, the eastern eyewall will likely be bolstered upon landfall by frictional convergence at the surface and for TB that may be enough
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Yeah I'm curious if that left turn happens as it approaches the coast. It's been hinted at on several runs and that could be worst case scenario for Tampa if it happens. They definitely aren't out of the woods yet
 
ILMRoss said:
While the southern eyewall may not make it, the eastern eyewall will likely be bolstered upon landfall by frictional convergence at the surface and for TB that may be enough
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Yea, if you’re looking for worst case scenario that would probably be it. Tampa Bay is oriented perfectly to funnel in water from an eastern eyewall impact.
 
Brent said:
Yeah I'm curious if that left turn happens as it approaches the coast. It's been hinted at on several runs and that could be worst case scenario for Tampa if it happens. They definitely aren't out of the woods yet
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right turn you mean?

tbh that's our best hope, any "turn" isn't because of synoptics, it's because the storm has weakened so much that the llc has decoupled from the mid level circulation and is getting steered by the trades instead of the trough
 
Water vapor

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152630 2229N 08837W 6974 02610 9424 +132 +055 348095 120 142 036 00 surface

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153030 2230N 08831W 6951 02532 9250 +200 +086 002018 028 025 001 00
 
NHC. 10 am

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
This dang thing has surprised the weather community. My opinion, the hits will keep on coming. To think, all of a sudden, it's gonna act like any other hurricane in gulf, is probably not a wise thought.
 
10 am NHC.....looks like they learned something last week.🤔🤔🤔

"However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location...."

"The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction."
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah, that looks a bit south of previous GEFS runs. Drives me nuts the HWRF is insistent on its northern route vs everything else.
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If I remember correctly, the times it's been stubborn like that, it's had the closest forecast to landfall point. But take me with a grain of salt....I'm an Hwrf fan so I tend to look over it's faults. 🤣😂🤣😂
 
Henry2326 said:
If I remember correctly, the times it's been stubborn like that, it's had the closest forecast to landfall point. But take me with a grain of salt....I'm an Hwrf fan so I tend to look over it's faults. 🤣😂🤣😂
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The HWRF can't simply be ignored but latest short term movement of Milton has been east and even wobbled a little south of due east again since the last center fix.
 
Stormsfury said:
The HWRF can't simply be ignored but latest short term movement of Milton has been east and even wobbled a little south of due east again since the last center fix.
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It's 80 miles from Tampa to Crystal River, so even shorter across water. It could go either way.

Here's another reason I support HWRF.....there is quite a right turn after 27n 84w for HMON for example. Anything is possible, obviously after this week, but a large storm making a right turn? I don't know. Hwrf has more of a slope in approach.
They are both at the same point, same timeframe.

hwrf_ref_14L_14.png

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SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
 
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