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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

We finally have a closed eye per this microwave pass...
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Latest update:
Location: 26.0°N 86.4°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

Also forecast for next 48 hours:
INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
 
6-10" for central NC. We saw that from Florence and that took 2+ days to achieve. Seems high but we will see.

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Guys, can yall explain the term "hot towers?" Is that hurricane slang , knowing those cloud tops are reeeeeallllly cold?
 
At first glance, the track doesn’t look any different than 12z. Paste bomb in the southern part of Upstate SC
 
pcbjr said:
If this is banter, please move ...
This is the most consistent cone and line I've seen the NHC maintain for 36 hours in a long, long time ... if they are right, big kudos ...

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It’s not Banter it’s porn. All kidding aside I think it’s pretty amazing to see a storm stay together That long. Weather is cool.
 
Is there any risk that the stronger he gets, the slower he becomes, and slips further south?

Looking for a scenario not currently in the Models that changes outcome.
 
Henry2326 said:
Is there any risk that the stronger he gets, the slower he becomes, and slips further south?
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"any risk" ... Yes; likely, Not so much so ...
... but until it is well north of me, I'm staying prepped ... and so should everyone else ... :eek:
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
At first glance, the track doesn’t look any different than 12z. Paste bomb in the southern part of Upstate SC
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Actually gonna benefit being S of 85 for a change!! Johnny C said that would be heaviest rains and strongest winds!
 
Going to be difficult to track his motion in the short term until the eye clears out, the way that deep convection is wrapping it will look like it's wobbling but man when it clears out it's going to be impressive
 
metwannabe said:
Going to be difficult to track his motion in the short term until the eye clears out, the way that deep convection is wrapping it will look like it's wobbling but man when it clears out it's going to be impressive
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and friggin' scary (not a side comment either ... said from "been there done that" a few too many times) ...
 
Last banter unless something major occurs, but so interesting ...
This town is out of gas and Publix is inundated ... with a storm that's supposed to pass 150 miles west ... ever been snake bit?

Edit:
What an impressive line of demarcation ... :oops:

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Kylo said:
6-10" for central NC. We saw that from Florence and that took 2+ days to achieve. Seems high but we will see.

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I don't think it's impossible. Trough passing to the north and west, divergence over the area, possibly a weak jet streak coming up the apps, well above normal pwats, and a h7 and h85 flow off the Atlantic means a big left of track rain event.

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NAM 3 18z at 932 pressure and drifting slightly south on track compared to all other models.

HWRF 12Z 939
 
Avalanche said:
Tornado threats on the east side??
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Anywhere north and east of the track. Im thinking there could be a max of tornado potential in eastern nc as the storm approaches late in the day. We may have some bands originating from the Atlantic with Cape in place from heating during the midday.

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Kylo said:
18z GFS really likes that 85 corridor for heaviest rains, sure is gusty in eastern NC too.

View attachment 6845 View attachment 6844
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I do wonder if the gfs is pulling the system slightly NW in response to the heavy precip axis its developing in almost a collective feedback issue. Just a thought when looking at the gfs track vs say the UK seems euro.

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