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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

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I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...

fv3gfs_michael.png
Still running about 18 hours sooner than the EURO...
 
12z UKMET went further west inland I believe.
ukmet_michael.png
Yeah that's further inland and NW as well than earlier.
I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...

fv3gfs_michael.png
Yay just what I needed. A TS though my backyard. :confused:. Unfortunately, the FV3 probably won't budge much and it seems reasonable to say it could stay within 50 or so miles of that path.
 
Yep and if the Euro comes west any we will be getting very close to a consensus...

UK sped up a lot from it's 0z run. It's 12 hours faster than the 0z run and 12 hours faster than the GFS. Will need to see it's ensembles to see if that was a blip run or not.

Last 3 runs of the UK all valid 12z Thursday.

UKtrend.gif
 
Fixing to cross the gulf stream loop current tonight

d1f13c4b5ab7498ee5649abd50f9607b26a7992b43d40d283417c75f1d3ad887.png
 
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