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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

I think every single EPS member with the exception of one, is on PCB...

there is only about a 30 mile spread with landfall on the eps
 
Curious as to why none of our major news outlets near Columbus and Atlanta are not mentioning anything to the northwest side of the storm??? I realize that NW side is typically drier and not as much wind... however I still think that areas between Columbus and Atlanta (I85 corridor) can see some damaging winds... we have a front pushing in... as someone already mentioned...wet ground makes it much easier for lesser amounts of wind to take out trees... FFC says pretty much no impacts north of Columbus and Macon.. this is one powerful storm... and I could be wrong, but personally think that wind field that causes fallen trees will be much bigger and stronger than they currently show on their website..... my 2 cents..
 
Is it me, or does Michael have all the bad stuff on the west side?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Can some post 12z eps?
Click to expand...
eps_michael.png
 
accu35 said:
Is it me, or does Michael have all the bad stuff on the west side?
Click to expand...
No.. the worst of this storm, wind, surge, etc will be in the NE quadrant, once inland the strongest wind and any tornado threat will be on the NE/E side..... only thing different will be the heavy rain enhanced by interaction with the digging trough on the NW side, where totals could possibly be higher than elsewhere.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Curious as to why none of our major news outlets near Columbus and Atlanta are not mentioning anything to the northwest side of the storm??? I realize that NW side is typically drier and not as much wind... however I still think that areas between Columbus and Atlanta (I85 corridor) can see some damaging winds... we have a front pushing in... as someone already mentioned...wet ground makes it much easier for lesser amounts of wind to take out trees... FFC says pretty much no impacts north of Columbus and Macon.. this is one powerful storm... and I could be wrong, but personally think that wind field that causes fallen trees will be much bigger and stronger than they currently show on their website..... my 2 cents..
Click to expand...

Yeah even the station here in Montgomery isn’t really hyped about it, they’re just talking about this being a wiregrass exclusive event.
 
This EPS suite has more members staying stronger for longer periods over land compared to 6z. Many appear to stay sub 980 the entire time. I'm guessing many would stay a tropical storm for the duration.
 
Here's Euro forecast gusts in knots. Keep in mind this sometimes is a bit high but it gives you an idea of where tropical storm force winds would occur in gusts if this takes a track like the Euro shows.
ecmwf_max_gust_se_108.png
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Curious as to why none of our major news outlets near Columbus and Atlanta are not mentioning anything to the northwest side of the storm??? I realize that NW side is typically drier and not as much wind... however I still think that areas between Columbus and Atlanta (I85 corridor) can see some damaging winds... we have a front pushing in... as someone already mentioned...wet ground makes it much easier for lesser amounts of wind to take out trees... FFC says pretty much no impacts north of Columbus and Macon.. this is one powerful storm... and I could be wrong, but personally think that wind field that causes fallen trees will be much bigger and stronger than they currently show on their website..... my 2 cents..
Click to expand...

Likely going to be way too far south to garner much of a story. If the storm doesn’t make as much of an abrupt shift NE, or makes it more gradually, then I would expect some coverage.

I know on most precipitation maps, most of my county (Dekalb) won’t see more than an inch or so of rain.
 
Been watching for a couple of days but nothing to contribute (everyone seems to be on the second with this one) ... until this thought came to mind ... rode out Kate at my farm north of Thomasville, and Opal (now that was a story) a tad south of Blairsville ... thought both would be "safe" locations ... so bottom line, Delta, FS and the rest of y'all inland, please take care, be safe and don't downplay potential impacts ...
Good Luck and Prayers,
Phil
 
I’m also not really paying attention to track that much for mby, it’s going to come down to where the frontogenisi/deform band sets up on the NW and N side of the storm!
Somebody could get 6” plus as the band pivots .
Also, just went under a flash flood watch!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Still not very symmetrical, I don’t think it makes a run at Cat 4, just based on current satellite
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The storm is MUCH more symmetrical than it has been and looking very good especially the quickly improving south side. This is a classic cat 3 look and will likely be a cat 4 tonight. The eye is clouded over because of off the scale -90C clouds that are wrapping around. The eye will clear out tonight as this continues wrapping up. This is something you typically see in a super typhoon in the PAC not the Atlantic as far as the cold cloud tops goes.
goes16_ir_meso1_20181009203131.jpg
 
We have new AF hurricane hunter in Michael. Obs slp down to 957.7 on that pass.
 
Our local Mets, Johnny C and Chris J, saying that some models are showing Michael staying at Cat 1 through the entire state of SC!!
 
Eye is nearly surrounded by these hot towers now... no weak south/west side once this finishes up in the next hour or two. Then the eye will start to clear out and develop a stadium effect, already seeing signs of it starting to work on that process.
mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20181009204328.gif
 
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