Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Storm5]

Noticed the FV3 shifted west at 6z as well. It has been rock solid on its track.

Looks like the 12z went a little east


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[Storm5]

CMC is a tad east.

It’s way east of previous runs over the last few days . Always last to catch up


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[Storm5]

Holy hell there is an 06z EPS ????


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[ForsythSnow]

This storm seems to be confusing the models I think. The GFS is already in the wrong direction early on by going NNE when the center is moving more NNW than anything and per recent satellite, more of a westward pull. I'm sure the other models will be confused and initialize in totally different locations.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

GFS is about right on top of me. NASTY for sure. A bit south of the 00z run, and a smidge south of the 6z run. Honestly pretty darn close to EURO...(euro is a bit south of GFS tho)

Yeah you might be seeing 50-60 mph sustained easily with gusts of over 70 mph. Could be a nasty midweek for ya.

 

[accu35]

This storm seems to be confusing the models I think. The GFS is already in the wrong direction early on by going NNE when the center is moving more NNW than anything and per recent satellite, more of a westward pull. I'm sure the other models will be confused and initialize in totally different locations.

I agree, models seems to be confused with the current movement. In the end I think the track will shift west.

 

[snowlover91]

Holy hell there is an 06z EPS ????

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Yeah it runs 4x a day now and will be useful for winter storms and systems like this. I believe it went live October 1st.

 

[accu35]

12z Gfs slowing system down yet tracking further south and east. Moving toward the Euro idea.

Gfs has it starting at a NNE movement, but the hurricane currently is moving NNW, that being said gfs is wrong with the initial movement and Michael could be more west of what models show

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 is WEST of its 6z run...

 

[accu35]

I'm going with the short range models as of now, I would think globle models aren't as good with a short range?

 

[deltadog03]

This storm seems to be confusing the models I think. The GFS is already in the wrong direction early on by going NNE when the center is moving more NNW than anything and per recent satellite, more of a westward pull. I'm sure the other models will be confused and initialize in totally different locations.

Looks like it's still rolling around a bit. Now on in I think we have a super solid core and should see a nice steady movement

 

[Metwannabe]

FV3 is not backing down on it's track that's for sure....

 

[deltadog03]

I think this is just a normal thing when TC are getting a core and have shear . Should see a more nice steady movement now .

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like it's still rolling around a bit. Now on in I think we have a super solid core and should see a nice steady movement

Have fun with this... lol

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 is WEST of its 6z run...

lol...I don't even know, I think the ICON/NAM/Euro are probably too far east/south but the FV3 going west is....just wow. I still would take the middle route again here.

 

[deltadog03]

Looking at SAT pics, I think its GO time for sure. The blob SE is not as strong, and now we have a good core really starting to take off.

 

[Metwannabe]

I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...

 

[Tarheel1]

I don't believe the FV3 has wavered much at all...

I need this track to verify! How’d this model do on Florence?

 

[Metwannabe]

I need this track to verify! How’d this model do on Florence?

Not too bad... I still think it's a little too far west but I'm not sold on the east track the Euro was showing earlier

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

If the FV3 wins...man props. Good test for it for sure.

It was one of the more eastern ones on Florence, but I still feel as if the middle ground ended up winning on the models there.