I was just going based off that 06z EPS map above. I didn't know that product was available yet either. The 32KM NAM just ends up here at hour 84:
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I was just going based off that 06z EPS map above. I didn't know that product was available yet either. The 32KM NAM just ends up here at hour 84:
12z Nam follows Euro stay on further east and south track rides coastal Carolinas.
Is it too much to ask the NHC to plot additional points when a system is moving this fast? Their plots have it around Macon, Ga Wed am to over 600 miles NE off the Delmarva coast the next 24 hours....
The euro and Gfs will both be bad for Columbia and maybe even Charleston area? What’s anyone thoughts on these areas?
Newest Euro data suggest a westward shift, seems to be the trend today and seems reasonable considering strength of the atlantic ridge.
WXinCanton
Member
They only run the ensembles at 6 and 18z? I've never seen them before, that's great to know.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah this convective burst should wrap around the eye the next few hours and then we probably will see it start clearing out after that. Probably tonight I'm thinking we start seeing a nice eye form.
WXinCanton
Member
NHC has it becoming a major now
Kylo
Member
What I was thinking but I always thought stronger hurricanes tend to track a little slower.
What's interesting is NHC has Michael at 84.9W. The GFS was west of 85W, about the closest model was UK.
I think the NAM is either drunk, or maybe well drunk...lol. NAM is now the furthers south/east model run so far. EURO is not quite that far. and by the looks of the EPS, 6z run (awesome!) it came back west a bit.
Also have to remember, which we all don't need that because its been hot and humid like crazy lately, but the ridge does hold pretty strong for most of this until landfall.
Kylo
Member
weathermodels has it just for tracking Michael it appears but doesn't have the Op yet. Stormvista is the only site I know of it that has it available.
Updated 6z EPS run. The UKmet is almost on top of the mean.
Unless squeezed between a ridge and digging trough?
Kylo
Member
EPS has a slightly stronger atlantic ridge that extends slightly more north over Michael. The forward speed difference is so large, not sure what else it could be.
snowlover91
Member
Something that models may not pick up on yet but that I've noticed in the past... with an approaching trough in October it's been my experience that Gulf storms typically make the turn to the NE a little quicker than is forecast. I would give more weight to the east side of the track for now. Also FWIW the 12z ICON is coming in east some.
12z Icon shifted east also more inline with Nam, Euro. I don’t know something tells me not to give up the eastern idea just yet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Anyone else notice the convection blob to the east of the storm? Pretty much feeding Michael moisture. Remind anyone of the other storms that had blobs? 
Also there is some nice outflow in the new cloud tops you can see on the northern end.
Also there is some nice outflow in the new cloud tops you can see on the northern end.
Kylo
Member
Wonder what the reason is why recon hasn't sampled NE side of Michael. Could it be an air space issue with Cuba.
It's going to come down to speed of Michael .Faster, more influence of the ridge and slower it's going to push NE quicker because of incoming trof .today's model runs will be telling for sure
Kylo
Member
