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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Snowfan said:
Imagine if the HMON/HWRF was correct.
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They very well could be. The HWRF is getting this down to 935 or so but the Euro and UK also get this down in the 940-945mb range as well which is impressive for a global model. The intense cold cloud tops Michael has is impressive and it will likely be a hurricane at 11 as best track is up to 65kts now I believe.
 
Has anyone seen the NAM 3km it is deviating at a 907 mb at landfall and that would be a tad stronger than Katrina.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The NAM 3km is a mesoscale model, so it blows storms out of proportion the most.
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What this seems legit.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_52.png


I'm kidding BTW
 
Yes once it can wrap in the feeder band energy, if you will, that will allow this to get stronger quicker. Shear keeps lessening so we shall see
 
The 3KM NAM, so far, would be the lowest pressure modeled for Michael. The "mesoscale" nature of the model is likely off, but a high end Cat. 2 - mid range Cat. 3 with a pressure around 945-950mb is not out of the question..

I haven't had a chance to look at the ocean temps, but I notice there are a few local news maps floating around saying that the Gulf is not favorable temp wise for Michael to intensify... Don't let those pretty "green" colors fool you on those maps. Windshear looks to be a non-factor and will become more favorable.. and rapid intensification has already occurred within the last 24 hours.
 
Shawn said:
The 3KM NAM, so far, would be the lowest pressure modeled for Michael. The "mesoscale" nature of the model is likely off, but a high end Cat. 2 - mid range Cat. 3 with a pressure around 945-950mb is not out of the question..

I haven't had a chance to look at the ocean temps, but I notice there are a few local news maps floating around saying that the Gulf is not favorable temp wise for Michael to intensify... Don't let those pretty "green" colors fool you on those maps. Windshear looks to be a non-factor and will become more favorable.. and rapid intensification has already occurred within the last 24 hours.
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TCHP don't look that great but as ARCC pointed out a couple days ago, correct me if I'm wrong, if Michael was a slower system this would indeed negate strengthening (easy to upwell those cooler waters) but looking at SST and the speed that Michael will be moving, probably will fuel it's intensification.

2018280go.jpg


2018279gosst.png
 
metwannabe said:
TCHP don't look that great but as ARCC pointed out a couple days ago, correct me if I'm wrong, if Michael was a slower system this would indeed negate strengthening (easy to upwell those cooler waters) but looking at SST and the speed that Michael will be moving, probably will fuel it's intensification.

2018280go.jpg


2018279gosst.png
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I wonder if those media maps were factoring in the maximum tropical intensity index... I think those maps are available, just not sure where to get them. Is that what TCHP is above?
 
Headed down to Gulf Shores this weekend for the Shrimp Festival...Sure hope Mikey gets the hell on out of here...He needs to speed up
 
Shawn said:
I wonder if those media maps were factoring in the maximum tropical intensity index... I think those maps are available, just not sure where to get them. Is that what TCHP is above?
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To my understanding.... yes. It's the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential but someone else correct me if I'm wrong
 
metwannabe said:
Starting to see clustering right around Panama City Beach for landfall...

AL14_2018100812.png
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I think once the shear relaxes a bit more we should see a NNW movement. I think the center still bouncing around, because of shear, it appears moving more NE I think a PCB landfall is very possible at this point.
 
metwannabe said:
To my understanding.... yes. It's the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential but someone else correct me if I'm wrong
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you are correct. but with a quicker moving cyclone, it Negative effects will not be as great. IMHO the best shot at keeping this in check is dry air, and shear for sure. Water temps, depth shouldn't be a huge negative for the strength part.
 
deltadog03 said:
you are correct. but with a quicker moving cyclone, it Negative effects will not be as great. IMHO the best shot at keeping this in check is dry air, and shear for sure. Water temps, depth shouldn't be a huge negative for the strength part.
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Completely agree and to add to this point and as Larry mentioned the other day water temps are above normal in the GOM.... see map below. Yeah a quick moving system will not be effected by depth of the warm water temps

atl_anom.gif
 
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