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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Curious to see what the 12z global models look like today but this right here is a tight cluster...

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Yeah agreed think strong likelihood this makes into a solid cat 3 over next 24 hours and still has a shot if atmosphere behaves of getting to a 4
 
snowlover91 said:
Eric, what are your thoughts on the transition and interaction of Michael as it moves across NC? I'm noticing some models are enhancing the west side, possibly due to some baroclinic influences as it is transitioning to extratropical? Euro wind gusts are pretty concerning for coastal NC with gusts over hurricane force... realistic or is the Euro out to lunch here?
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The Euro wind gusts are likely overdone to some extent as was the case w/ Florence but they could be enough to bring down trees and power lines. The enhancement of precipitation on the west side of Michael is a classic, left of track case with a positively tilted trough approaching from the northwest, interacting additively with the cyclone to enhance rainfall due to large-scale quasi-geostrophic ascent, frontogenesis, upper level divergence to the north of the cyclone, and isentropic lift w/ warm tropical air gliding up isentropes into the relatively cooler air aloft to the N and NW of the incoming cyclone. The easterly wind north of the cyclone also helps triggers a geostrophic adjustment process whereby some cold air damming is favored, which only acts to increase lift and precipitation. Contrary to popular misconceptions, you don't necessarily need to have a strong high to the north in New England or SE Canada every single time to get a CAD event. Even near or slightly below normal MSLP north of very low MSLP to the south via a hurricane for example still generates the same large-scale pressure gradient fore and easterly wind needed to produce cold air damming. Buoyancy is obviously way different in the warm season however and the amount of time the easterly wind will be present north of Michael is limited by its rapid forward movement so it'll only play a very minor role in this case but it's non-zero and can't be entirely ignored. Orographic lift will also contribute to precipitation amounts especially over the western piedmont, foothills, and mountains of NC particularly if Michael tracks over or west of central NC.
 
Supposedly, the new recon data will help give a more accurate track forecast for 12z suite. I hope so and we see the Atlantic ridge flex, and push this a little more N and W! Fingers crossed
 
Almost a major as of the latest advisory. Up to 110 mph, pressure down to 965 mb. NHC now forecasting a maximum intensity of 125 mph.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is probably worth mentioning.

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Yes as it passes over the loop current this afternoon I expect the south side will fill in and we see a symmetrical CDO finally. I'm personally thinking a category 4 for peak strength is possible, I envision a Harvey scenario where this strengthens up until it is over land (but not the stalling part of Harvey).
 
Latest Euro showing 165mph wind gusts near Panama City at landfall. Do I believe it? No, but that’s what it’s showing
 
If you want to believe the 3k NAM I land while track is still south of ATL it throws some strong storm bands due north which could bring severe storms and spawn a tornado or 2. Even too parts north of ATL
 
malak05 said:
If you want to believe the 3k NAM I land while track is still south of ATL it throws some strong storm bands due north which could bring severe storms and spawn a tornado or 2. Even too parts north of ATL
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Eric posted earlier that this might be a result of forcing from the trough axis. His post was pertaining mostly to the higher terrain of W. Carolina if I recall, but I’m not certain if the same would be true for other areas west of the circulation due to lack of orthographic lift.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Latest Euro showing 165mph wind gusts near Panama City at landfall. Do I believe it? No, but that’s what it’s showing
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It's very reasonable. This will likely be a high end 3 or category 4 at landfall. Wind gusts can be 25-35mph stronger than the sustained winds. This will likely make a run at cat 4 later tonight as the eye clears.
 
GaWx said:
Keep in mind that Euro has a history of overdoing wind gusts. Therefore, I feel confident it is overdoing it again.
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If this is 135-145mph at landfall gusts will be 160-170 in some areas. This is going to make a run for category 4 today, unfortunately. I hope everyone in Panama City is evacuated because there will not be much left after the surge and wind moves through.
 
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