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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

over SGA and kicking....still looks like this run is a bit West from comparing it to the 00z run last night. trying to see about the 12z run...Larry, it appears its a little W from the 12z run as well?
 
0Z Euro landfall near Apalachicola again but 6 hours earlier.
it did speed up a little bit. I t think the EURO is about the most southern/East I think at this point. or at least the possible track, on the southern side. GFS would obviously be the furtherest West track at this point.
 
hwrf_satIR_14L_11.png
Yeah Florence looked like this on the HWRF also, but we all know how that played out. I’m sure they’ve already started seeding Michael
 
How do you say, "That aint good" any better than this. Maybe the HWRF isnt completely crazy.
 

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over SGA and kicking....still looks like this run is a bit West from comparing it to the 00z run last night. trying to see about the 12z run...Larry, it appears its a little W from the 12z run as well?

Chris,
It looks to be about the same from landfall on vs 12Z with it being about 6 hours faster. The inland track looks very similar to the last 2 Euros to me.
 
what is this steering map telling us? if it stays this way a more WNW track for a bit?

wg8dlm5-1.GIF
That tells me this will have a general N to NNW movement, IF** it reaches that strength. That level is for if this gets down in the 94x mb range.
 
Chris,
It looks to be about the same from landfall on vs 12Z with it being about 6 hours faster. The inland track looks very similar to the last 2 Euros to me.
Yes sir...I did notice that the heavier rain shield and the higher wind gusts, as forecasted by the doc, was a bit West this run. mainly made a bigger difference over Central GA
 
WOW! Center jumped a little NNE, under the convection, and is down to 983mb!
recon_AF305-0214A-MICHAEL.png
 
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