One thing to remember as well, as it heads inland it will start to quickly transition due to the approaching trough. That will make this extremely east sided and also expand the wind to that side.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
It isn't just that it is untouched. It has been exposed to air that is well above normal, thus leading to SSTs that are 5-6 warmer than normal in the far N Gulf south of the FL Panhandle, which is the normal for late July through early Sep. This is not at all normal for early Oct. This is more like the normal in early Oct way down in the W Caribbean!
WxSouth just said the exact opposite on FB. Said band will get heavy on NW side of storm as front approaches.
Not really. He is talking about the rain shield rotating around the storm which is likely. However the wind threat will primarily be on the eastern side in the strong convective band.
Henry2326
Member
In my crude analysis, after reviewing 5th grade geography again,
I think this data explains why GFS and FV3 are out of the passage slightly faster than the UKMET. Lets hope they all true up tonight to see if it compounding the differences in future days, specifically the big difference on Tuesday.
It will be interesting as well to see how thr FV3 performs again. If it nails this, alright we finally have an American model that can hang with the Euro.
Looks like not much change D3-5, but a little east in short term.
Brent
Member
Interesting uh discussion
Last I saw the Euro and GFS and FV GFS? was a global and pretty intense
The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane.
Last I saw the Euro and GFS and FV GFS? was a global and pretty intense
The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane.
Ya, I didn't really understand the wording on that. I thought most models show a pretty descent storm.Interesting uh discussion
Last I saw the Euro and GFS and FV GFS? was a global and pretty intense
The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane.
Brent
Member
I mean I'm not even saying it'll definitely be a major but it just seems like a weird comment with all the evidence supporting it
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
0Z ICON with a sizable jump NW
0z GFS a hair east of 18z.
snowlover91
Member
RGEM, CMC and GFS so far have all slowed down some and shifted east. Trending to the Euro idea here and the Euro makes the most sense in this synoptic setup. A landfall in the big bend area then traveling up the GA to NC coast looks very reasonable to me.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Ehh it really didn’t shift east much at all. Icon went west a good bit. Will be interesting what FV3 shows in a bit.
snowlover91
Member
It’s been my experience that with some westerly shear and an approaching trough these systems usually turn NE sooner than most models show. In this synoptic setup I think the Euro and UK have the right idea. GFS slowed down a lot this run once inland and RGEM did too. Models are catching up here.
Despite an eastern shift early, the 0Z UKMET shifted west vs the 12Z at landfall and beyond:
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46
snowlover91
Member
Notably the 941mb pressure prior to landfall...
That's a pretty good jump west both at coast and inland right?