Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Shawn]

Tip: When Larry posts the early UKMET lat/lon, you can look it up on Google maps.

Here is an example for the landfall point from tonight's 00z coordinates using "30.1N 84.4W" on Google maps search., 941MB:

 

[snowlover91]

Or you can view it here

 

[deltadog03]

I know I can Google it .I was just saying that sounded like a big shift west

 

[Snowflowxxl]

FV3 was a tick east this run

 

[GaWx]

That's a pretty good jump west both at coast and inland right?

Indeed, it was, Chris.

 

[stormcentral]

Satellite imagery at 1AM
Getting better organized

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: Despite being further east earlier in the run, near the latitude of 26N it gets to 86.1W.That is actually the furthest west of the last 3 runs in that area. The prior run was at 85.5W and the one before that was at 85.3W. Furthermore, as mentioned to Chris, this run was further west at US landfall. It was actually further west than the prior 3 runs. You have to go back 4 runs to have a US landfall further west than this new run:

- 0Z 10/8 run: 84.5W
- 12Z 10/7 run: 83.6W
- 0Z 10/7 run: 83.5W
- 12Z 10/6 run: 83.8W
- 0Z 10/6 run: 86.4W

 

[Arcc]

0z GEFS is pretty much lock step with the OP except for a handful of members that are faster.

 

[deltadog03]

I think recon is going to find a pretty healthy storm and one definitely strengthening. See some stronger winds west side.

 

[Arcc]

Yeah the HWRF found the good weed tonight.

120kts and 927mb at LF. An astounding 155kts at 850mb.

Edit- Even the HMON is now showing a major hurricane at LF, though a good bit less than the HWRF.

 

[accu35]

 

[GaWx]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

 

[deltadog03]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

Honestly that doesn't surprise me Larry.....That is more than likely because of the center relocation. lets see where this goes.

 

[deltadog03]

From hr 24 to hr 48 it picks up speed and strength and moves NNW into Center GOM

 

[GaWx]

From hr 24 to hr 48 it picks up speed and strength and moves NNW into Center GOM

MUCH stronger at hour 60 vs 12Z run...a beast!

All models bring down the shear to a very favorable under 10 knots over the next few days. And then you have the W Caribbeanlike 29-30C SSTs.

 

[GaWx]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

 

[deltadog03]

Heading due N...or very slightly NNNNE...lol at hour 72, def. stronger and a bit quicker vs the 00z run from last night.

 

[deltadog03]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

looks like its a bit faster than the 00z run last night...def stronger.

edit....The ridge looks a bit stronger on the SE coast as well this run vs the last few runs.

 

[Brent]

In other news recon almost supports a hurricane

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

the 1 am update from NHC has it hitting florida/ga and only a sliver of the cone touching bama