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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

I think anywhere from Pecola to PC is my bet
 
GFS so far, about to turn NNE at hr 42 and pretty close to the 12 and 18z runs..maybe a smidge slower in speed, but strong
 
Henry2326 said:
In GA that 36 hours is the difference between a hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning by county....people hunkering down or not....they blow off the tropical storm. My family is from there. Obviously the cane doesn't care what county you live.
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I wonder if they will issue tropical storm watches for the southern and central CWA by tomorrow morning/early afternoon, they're already forecasting tropical storm conditions as far north as the metro Atlanta area.
 
Touch slower, much stronger, same track
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So 0z models have new data, only difference with the GFS is really strength and slight timing, Lord I hope goofus is being goofus
 
Not surprising. Michael has been intensifying under 20kts of shear which will drop below 10kts per NHC and the upper air mission data indicated the shear was low ahead of Michael too. This extra data is likely why the uptick in intensity. FWIW the 32km NAM was the strongest it’s been too.
 
GFS is slightly south this run, but basically rolls right over my house..lol. I just got home and realized that the euro was a descent shift West over GA. Brings some 70+ MPH gusts here....
 
Interaction with the front expanding precip maximum in central/western NC... could cause some minor flooding issues, fortunately he ain't lingering around
 
Folks remember this image... because tomorrow this is going to be an absolute beast. The last time I saw a TC consistently maxing out the scale like this in the Atlantic was Wilma. Not saying it’ll get that strong at all but these extremely cold cloud tops wrapping completely around are extremely worrying. A high end cat 4 to low 5 is within the realm of possibility imo.
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deltadog03 said:
I'm noticing a NNW movement now as well and it appears he is picking up speed
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Yeah, NNW has been ongoing for a bit now. Gonna be interesting to see how far west he goes before the bend
 
GFS had high PWATs and a good slug of upper air moisture up until landfall. Southern flow from around the ridge and from the digging trough looks to provide a very moisture rich environment.
 
A tad slower, much stronger, same track...
Might be a little SE once well inland
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Well so far 00z runs are showing more strength potential for Michael .Let's see what the doc does
 
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