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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

18Z GFS hour 48 nearly identical to the 12Z GFS hour 54.
 
D3CA76E4-AC9B-4268-8214-913D3911C77A.png B Rads thoughts....
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
Can the front/trough coming East, actually pull Michael towards itself briefly, slightly west pull, before the NE movements?
 
Henry2326 said:
24 hours sooner than the Euro.
Its all about the timing.
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As of 8 AM EDT Wednesday, the 12Z Euro is at 26.5N, 87.3W, the 12Z UKMET is at 27.5N, 85.1W, and the 18Z GFS is at 29.0N, 87.3W. So, the 18Z GFS is then a whopping 175 miles N of the 12Z Euro and the UKMET is 150 miles ENE of the 12Z Euro! That's major disagreement at day 3!
 
GaWx said:
As of 8 AM EDT Wednesday, the 12Z Euro is at 26.5N, 87.3W, the 12Z UKMET is at 27.5N, 85.1W, and the 18Z GFS is at 29.0N, 87.3W. So, the 18Z GFS is then a whopping 175 miles N of the 12Z Euro and the UKMET is 150 miles ENE of the 12Z Euro! That's major disagreement at day 3!
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Yup ... the jury still has evidence to consider ... ;)
 
Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.
 
GaWx said:
Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.
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So basically the race is starting at different places for different horses? Wonder if they will true that up at midnight?

Also the difference in Euro and GFS is happening slightly out of the passage gate in addition to a big jump between noon Monday and noon Tuesday.

Edit: earlier today you said that the Euro and Ukmet tends to go west or east of the other models and we should consider a Big Bend scenario. I said that could be a 250 or more mile error in a forecast model. You might have found it.
 
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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
FV3 18z same landfall area as 12z, even when the fv3 started out right on the initial area of the new center.
 
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