Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[ForsythSnow]

Since I didn't see anyone mention it, and since I just noticed, there is an upper level dropsonde flight in progress. This should fine tune the data and get the models in better agreement and might change the model paths.

 

[Henry2326]

With all of that said, I see no change in 2pm NHC....

 

[Snowfan]

With all of that said, I see no change in 2pm NHC....

View attachment 6790

The 2 pm track never changes. Only the 5 and the 11 am/pm does.

 

[Kylo]

With all of that said, I see no change in 2pm NHC....

View attachment 6790

They will shift a little west at 5pm. They are on the eastern side of consensus.

 

[snowlover91]

Since I didn't see anyone mention it, and since I just noticed, there is an upper level dropsonde flight in progress. This should fine tune the data and get the models in better agreement and might change the model paths.

Full 00z suite tonight should have all the data incorporated so hopefully this helps out with determining the speed/track differences that are still there. Landfall near Panama City looks about locked in though.

 

[accu35]

 

[Henry2326]

Full 00z suite tonight should have all the data incorporated so hopefully this helps out with determining the speed/track differences that are still there. Landfall near Panama City looks about locked in though.

one thing we know for sure....path has changed every 24 hours, so I have high expectations that it will change again.

 

[pcbjr]

one thing we know for sure....path has changed every 24 hours, so I have high expectations that it will change again.

Bingo ...

 

[Tarheel1]

80 mph now @ 5pm update

 

[Henry2326]

This looks very different than the past coupleof of days. Maybe shear can help if it hangs around for a couple of days.

 

[pcbjr]

Done this 7 or 8 or 10 more times than ever wanted ... he's over 500 miles away and hasn't cleared the shoot ...



... there's an awful lot that can still happen, west, east or whatever ... hold on to your britches for another 12 to 18 ...

 

[accu35]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Not that it means much, but the NAM didn't look like it changed much. 18z NAM past 48 hours though, so...lol.

Yeah I'm curious of when Michael leaves the passage. I think that'll determine a lot upstream.

 

[pcbjr]

If relative size as projected there at the end of this run was anything ... remember Charlie?

 

[ForsythSnow]

The ICON finally went north this run to about where the others have.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

ICON looks like it goes just about right over me. Probably still as a tropical storm, too.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is running.

 

[pcbjr]

... all worth factoring in to your considerations ...





animation links ...
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default/files/mnt/webdata/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

 

[Storm5]

The 5pm advisory track looks a little west


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[pcbjr]

The 5pm advisory track looks a little west


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Oblviously ... LOL

 

[Snowfan]

GFS looks a bit slower through 36.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS has it in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane at 54 hours.
Edit: Now has it in Southern Georgia as a weak hurricane at 60 hours.

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks a little west

 

[Snowfan]

Looks a little west

And a little slower too.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Excatly the same track! a tip east.

 

[pcbjr]

GFS has it in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane at 54 hours.
Edit: Now has it in Southern Georgia as a weak hurricane at 60 hours.

Just not yet sold on the timing of the NE bend ... still thinking the mouth of the Suwannee is a spot to watch ...

 

[Tarheel1]

Winning!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Excatly the same track! a tip east.

Gfs is west

 

[Tarheel1]

CLT —- Attn B Rad P, paging B Rad!!!!!!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 6801 CLT —- Attn B Rad P, paging B Rad!!!!!!

Is he still calling for sprinkles with an occasional breeze?

 

[Kylo]

GFS was pretty much on top of it's previous run but just slower.

 

[Tarheel1]

Is he still calling for sprinkles with an occasional breeze?

Lol! Basically, yes! He posted this a day or two ago on FB!

 

[MichaelAndrews]

Coming straight for me!

 

[Tarheel1]

Isn’t the cloud tops /cirrus that are being pushed due N out in front of the hurricane, indicative of the path it will follow, due to upper air flow??

 

[Arcc]

This looks very different than the past coupleof of days. Maybe shear can help if it hangs around for a couple of days.

View attachment 6795

Picking up shear from anticyclone and outflow.

 

[Kylo]

I wouldn't consider this screaming fast as it's tracking over land.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Microwave imagery indicates a closed eyewall again.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Current Watch/Warning areas: